2023 New Mexico Bowl (New Mexico State vs Fresno State) Prediction & Best Bets: Will the Aggies Tie a School Record in Albuquerque?

New Mexico State may have missed out on the Conference USA championship, but it has been one of the most memorable and successful seasons in the program’s history. And the Aggies’ terrific 2023 will end on a very high note if they can defeat Fresno State in Saturday’s New Mexico Bowl in Albuquerque (5:45 pm ET, ESPN).

In 127 previous seasons, the Aggies (10-4) won ten or more games only once. That was in 1960, they went 11-0, won the Border Conference title, and defeated Utah State in the Sun Bowl.

That Sun Bowl appearance would be the last one for New Mexico State until 2017, when the drought was broken with an Arizona Bowl appearance, where, as it happens, they faced and defeated Utah State.

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That would be their only bowl trip in nine seasons under former head coach Doug Martin, who was replaced by former Minnesota coach Jerry Kill.

Kill has engineered quite the turnaround in his short time in Las Cruces. Last season, the Aggies won seven games and defeated Bowling Green in the Quick Lane Bowl. This season, the Aggies won at Auburn, reached 10 wins, and played for the Conference USA title in their debut season.

With a win over Fresno State, New Mexico State will tie the school record for wins, and the achievement would be made even sweeter by doing it on the home field of archrival New Mexico, who just ended a seventh straight bowl-less season.

New Mexico State vs Fresno State Odds

Spread

• New Mexico State -3.5 (-116)
• Fresno State +3.5 (-104)

Over/Under

• Over 51 (-110)
• Under 51 (-110)

Moneyline

• New Mexico State -172
• Fresno State +152

Will Pavia Pave the Way for a New Mexico State Win?

At the heart of New Mexico State’s success over the last season and a half is quarterback Diego Pavia, a native of Albuquerque.

Last season, Pavia led the Aggies to five wins in their final six games following a 2-5 start, accumulating 12 touchdown passes (and only one interception) as well as 406 rushing yards and four touchdowns in that stretch.

That stretch served as a springboard for this season for the Aggies and Pavia, a former state champion wrestler who is generously listed at 6’0’’.

Liberty quarterback Kaidon Salter racked up more total yards (3814 total yards – 2750 passing, 1064 rushing) and more touchdowns (43 total touchdowns – 31 passing, 12 rushing) and led the Flames to a perfect run through Conference USA play and a berth in the Fiesta Bowl, but Pavia received Conference USA Player of the Year honors.

In the Conference USA championship game, Pavia exited in the third quarter with an elbow injury. Backup Blaze Berkowitz led the Aggies to a game-tying touchdown on his first drive, but NMSU was able to score again, while Liberty scored two fourth-quarter touchdowns to claim a 49-35 win and the C-USA title.

2023 Season Statistics for New Mexico State QB Diego Pavia

• Passing: 210 of 341 (61.6%), 2915 yards, 26 TD, 8 INT
• Rushing: 159 attempts, 856 yards (5.4 YPA), 6 TD

Not having Pavia for the business end of the matchup with the Flames is certainly a big “what if?” for New Mexico State, but with another year of eligibility remaining, he could get another crack at taking down Liberty.

Pavia is expected to be able to go against Fresno State, and the Bulldogs will have their hands full with a guy who has accounted for three or more touchdowns in a game six times and 300 or more yards five times this season.

Will they be up to the task? It’s hard to believe that they will, given the miserable finish the Bulldogs had. At one point, they were in the New Year’s Six mix, but they dropped their final three games to San Jose State, New Mexico, and San Diego State to miss out on the conference championship game.

In those final three games, the Bulldogs allowed an average of 467.3 yards per game, including 293.3 yards per game on the ground.

New Mexico State vs Fresno State Prediction and Best Bets

Prediction: New Mexico State to win

Best Bets: New Mexico State -3.5 (-116 at BetOnline) & New Mexico State/Fresno State first half over 24.5 (-105 at BetOnline)

How motivated will Fresno State be after their rough run in November? Along with that being a potential concern, the Bulldogs will be without head coach Jeff Tedford for the bowl game for health reasons.

New Mexico State allowed 712 yards (319 passing, 393 rushing) in the championship game loss to Liberty, so Fresno State could certainly do some damage on offense.

That is, if the right Mikey Keene shows up, not the one who struggled in the losses to San Jose State, New Mexico, and San Diego State.

In Keene and RB Malik Sherrod (876 rushing yards, 11 total TD), the Bulldogs have the horses to keep pace in the race, but again, you do have to wonder if motivation will be an issue.

Either way, I expect New Mexico State to get the job done in Albuquerque and finish an unforgettable season with a record-tying 11th win.

Where to Bet on College Football

Most top online sportsbooks offer a wide variety of college football odds throughout the season, including on the two CFP semifinal matchups between Michigan and Alabama and Washington and Texas.

In addition to being able to make weekly college football picks all the way from Week Zero to the College Football Playoff National Championship, you can also bet on Heisman Trophy odds, conference championship odds, win totals, and much more.

There are plenty of sports betting sites you can choose from that are good for college football betting. Below are some of the books that we highly recommend:

• BetDSI
• BetOnline
• BetUS
• Bookmaker
• MyBookie
• Sportsbetting.ag

If you don’t have an account at a book on this list, check out our reviews to help you determine if it is worth your interest and your betting funds.

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