NCAA Football Predictions, Odds & Best Bets: Friday Conference Championships (12/6)

This Friday we have a three NCAA Football Conference Championship matchups, with six teams hoping to hoist some hardware. The Conference USA, the American Athletic, and the Mountain West conferences have their Title Game underneath the Friday Night Lights. Be sure to check out all of our NCAA Football game pieces and Expert Picks for the entire weekend with our best bets. Here’s a few listed below.

• ACC: #12 Clemson vs #9 SMU
• Big Ten: #1 Oregon vs #4 Penn State
• Big 12: #16 Iowa State vs #15 Arizona State
• SEC: #5 Georgia vs #2 Texas

My good friend Mr. Colby Marchio and I will be tag teaming this article in order to give you everything you need to know about College Pigskin this Friday, which features some great matchups!

Check out our Expert NCAA Football Picks!

Friday Night NCAA Football Best Bets

Western Kentucky vs Jacksonville State Best Bets

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Best Bet: Tre Stewart Over 104.5 Rushing Yards (-114) BetOnline

Colby Marchio: These two teams are facing off for the second time in as many weeks. Last week, Western Kentucky narrowly edged out Jacksonville State 19-17 in a must-win game to secure a spot in the Conference USA Championship. Meanwhile, the Gamecocks had little to play for, having already clinched their spot.

My initial lean is toward Jacksonville State. Facing the same team in back-to-back weeks, especially after a close loss, puts the Gamecocks in a great position to capitalize on adjustments. With a week of tape on a desperate Hilltoppers squad, this feels like a spot to back the Gamecocks.

However, my primary play is on Jacksonville State running back Tre Stewart’s rushing prop set at 104.5 yards. He’s exceeded this mark in six of 12 games this season, all during conference play. While he hasn’t hit 100 yards in three weeks, he came close with 99 yards against Sam Houston State, whose rush defense ranks 50th nationally—71 spots better than Western Kentucky.

Last week, Stewart recorded 85 yards on 20 carries against the Hilltoppers, and Jacksonville State as a team put up 229 rushing yards. The Hilltoppers struggle against the run, ranking 14th worst in the nation in rushing yards allowed per game (over 200 on average). On the road, they’re even worse, allowing 236.3 yards per game, making them the fourth-worst road rush defense in the country.

With the Gamecocks likely to have their full rushing attack on display this week, Stewart should find plenty of success on the ground. I’m backing him to go over 105 yards rushing.

Nate Hornung: I certainly lean with the Gamecocks here, for all the reasons Colby said. Revenge factor, at home, no motivation last week, it all seems like it adds up to Jacksonville State.

I am extremely close to pulling the trigger on WKU QB, Caden Veltkamp Over 265.5 Passing Yards (-114). I haven’t brought it to the counter yet, but he threw the ball 47 times against Jacksonville State last week for 28 completions and 301 yards. He’s only hit 266 four times this year, ending at 262 and 264 in separate occasions. He’s thrown the ball 81 times the last two games, which is increased dramatically from his season average, and given the Toppers may find themselves playing from behind, Veltkamp might need to sling the pill to keep them in the ball game.

The Gamecocks allow over 220 passing yards per game, rank 86th in yards allowed per pass, and don’t do a great job of getting to the QB. If Veltkamp has time to sit back and find his targets, he could torch the secondary for a 2nd straight week.

#20 UNLV vs #10 Boise State Best Bets

Slight Lean: Boise State -5 (-107) BetOnline

Colby Marchio: This game is Boise State or nothing for me. The stakes are sky-high for the Broncos—possible playoff contention, Ashton Jeanty’s Heisman aspirations, and, of course, the Mountain West title. They absolutely need this win.

UNLV, however, will aim to spoil Boise State’s hopes with one of the best rush defenses in the country, allowing just 14th-fewest rushing yards per game. But the Broncos may have an edge through the air. UNLV’s pass defense ranks 106th nationally, giving up over 250 yards per game. If Boise State can exploit this weakness, they should find a path to victory and keep their playoff hopes alive.

While I don’t have many additional thoughts, this game means far more to Boise State. It’s their moment, and I’d back them to find a way to get it done. Pair their ML with Tulane’s for some plus money action.

Nate Hornung: The Broncos have been incredible all year long. They went toe-to-toe with the Oregon Ducks in Eugene early in the season, have rolled over their opponents since then, and have a Heisman running back leading the way.

Boise State has set themselves up for success, all they need to do is finish the job against a frisky UNLV team they’ve already beat once. Jeanty is obviously going to have a huge workload, but UNLV’s rushing defense is spectacular. I am seeing 176.5 as the highest rushing total for the RB, and I am tempted to take the under. However, Boise’s first priority is winning this game. Their 2nd is pumping up Jeanty’s numbers in order to give him a shot at the award that already seems to be wrapped up.

Lean with Boise, probably too many yards for Jeanty, but let’s see what he’s made of.

Tulane vs #24 Army Best Bets

Best Bet: Tulane -4.5 (-105) BetOnline

Colby Marchio: Tulane is coming off an ugly loss to Memphis, where they were nearly two-touchdown favorites but ended up losing by 10. The Green Wave now face a must-win situation in the American Conference Championship against Army. While their playoff hopes are gone, this game is critical for salvaging their season.

Army, on the other hand, has the Navy game looming next week, but their focus should be on taking home the conference title. While I have minimal thoughts on how Army will approach this matchup, this game undoubtedly means more to Tulane.

The loss to Memphis felt like Tulane was already looking ahead to this game. With an extra week to regroup and prepare, they should be ready. The line has crept up to nearly -6, so my suggestion would be to take Tulane’s moneyline and pair it with another bet.

Nate Hornung: I’ve got the stones to back the green wave. They had an U-G-L-Y loss to Memphis last week that ruined their perfect AAC record. Now they face an Army team that new to the conference, at this point isn’t playing for a spot in the CFP, and may be looking ahead to their showdown with Navy in a week.

To stop Army, you need to stop the run, and Tulane can do that. They give up just 125 yards on the ground per game, putting them in the Top 30 in the country. Offensively, they have a freshman QB who has been exactly what they need all season long. Do they have two ranked losses? Sure. But they have the tools to compete in a shootout, which I could see this turning into.

Did they give up 236 yards on the ground last week? Yes. Does that worry me? Sure. But the tools are all there, I trust Tulane to rally together and take down a service academy who has bigger things to worry about.

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