Michigan State vs #6 Oregon: NCAA Football Predictions, Odds & Best Bets (10/4)

Friday Night Lights out in Oregon as the Ducks host the Michigan State Spartans for some Big Ten Football out on the West Coast. Oregon actually began Big Ten play on the West Coast last week, beating a familiar foe, the UCLA Bruins, 34-13 on the road. A bit ironic starting off conference play against a former PAC-12 opponent, but regardless, they host their first Big Ten conference game this weekend, facing a team from East Lansing.

The Spartans started off hot, winning three straight games, including a conference matchup against Maryland, taking down the Terps 27-24. However they’ve dropped their last two and will be looking for a miracle in Eugene. Michigan State lost to Boston College in BC, 23-19, and then took a brutal beating from the Buckeyes at home, losing 38-7. Now they pack up on a short week and travel all the way out to Oregon to try and pull off a major upset on the road. Do they have it in them?

While Oregon may have started slow based on some standards, they are still undefeated and have covered their last two spreads. Do they keep the momentum rolling at home, where they haven’t yet had a truly dominant win? Dillon Gabriel has thrown for 9 TDs and 1 INT this season, including nearly 300 yards per contest. He’s completing over 80% of his passes, and Oregon has a very good win over Boise State, despite not covering the spread. They very well may be the Broncos only loss all season.

But can the Ducks finally cover a large spread at home?

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Michigan State vs Oregon: Big Ten Football in Eugene

Matchup Information – Michigan State vs Oregon

• Venue & Location: Autzen Stadium (Eugene, OR)
• Date: Friday, October 4th, 2024
• Kick Off: 9:00pm Eastern
• Broadcast: FOX

Betting Odds

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Spread

• Michigan State +24 (-105)
• Oregon -24 (-115)

Money Line

• Michigan State +1150
• Oregon -2500

Total

• Over 52.5 (-110)
• Under 52.5 (-110)

Check out our Michigan vs Washington Preview!

Can Spartans Battle with the Ducks in Oregon?

Now, at an initial glance, this matchup doesn’t look pretty for the Spartans. They just got blown out by the Buckeyes at home after losing a tough one to Boston College on the East Coast. Now they have to go out to the West Coast on a short week and go up against a potential National Championship contender in the Oregon Ducks. Buckle up, Spartans, it’s going to be a rough one.

However, we can’t overlook the “look ahead” spot for the Ducks. Next week, Oregon gets a true “baptism by fire” into the Big Ten, as they host the #3 Ohio State Buckeyes. After facing UCLA and Michigan State to start their transition into the new conference, the Ducks host their toughest game next weekend. However, I am not buying into this being a “look ahead” spot, simply because they have an extra day of rest going into that contest. I trust Dan Lanning to have his guys focused, and ready to roll in this Friday Night matchup. Oregon will put all their effort into this game, and sit back and rest while their opponent for next week faces a tough Iowa defense.

Spartan’s Offensive and Defensive Struggles

Michigan State has failed to generate any offense in their last two matchups, scoring just two total TDs in those games. Aidan Chiles has thrown 4 picks in his last two starts as well. The Spartans can’t move the ball on offense, and can’t stop anyone on defense either. Boston College moved the ball for 152 yards on the ground, only completing 10/16 passes for 140 yards through the air. The Buckeyes went for 185 rushing yards against the Spartans, running for over 5 yards per carry. They also threw for nearly 300 yards and 3 TDs as well. It won’t get any easier for Michigan State, as they face an Oregon offense moving the ball for 443 yards per game.

The Ducks run for 4.9 yards per carry, with lead RB Jordan James running for 96.5 yards per game and 6 yards per carry. He’s added 4 TDs as well. Dillon Gabriel and the Ducks throw for 275 yards per contest, ranking in the Top 30 of most offensive categories. I fully trust the Oregon offense to continue rolling against a defense that allowed almost 500 total yards last week. With a very balanced attack, much like the Buckeyes, the Ducks should be able to do whatever they please against the visiting Spartans.

Michigan State Spartans vs Oregon Ducks Best Bets

Michigan State vs Oregon Prediction: Oregon Wins & Covers, Over 52.5

Best Bets: Oregon 1Q TT Over 8.5 (-120) Bovada

We are backing the Ducks to start out red hot against the Spartans. Let me break down my thinking.

For starters, what a weird number. Why wouldn’t this be set at 7.5 or 9.5? A touchdown and safety somehow cashes this line, even though I think the Ducks can score twice in the first 15 minutes. Oregon has scored a TD on their opening drive in 3/4 games this season, doing so in less than 5 and a half minutes every time. They even scored a TD in their first 3 drives against Oregon State, with each one taking less than 4 minutes off the clock, but going over 75+ yards. The Ducks scored points on all 8 of their drives against the Beavers, excluding kneel downs at half and the end of regulation. Against UCLA last week, Oregon scored points on their opening 5 drives, scoring a TD three separate times.

This week, they host a very bad defense, and I trust the Ducks to come out of the tunnel ready to play on Friday night. Michigan State allowed an opening drive TD to Maryland, but did hold Ohio State to just a field goal. The Buckeyes scored their 10th point a minute into the 2nd quarter, and the Oregon offense operates much faster than the Buckeyes.

Ducks Lightning Fast Offense

Here’s how quickly the Ducks scored against UCLA last week.

• 1st Drive: 12 plays, 75 yards, TD, 5:22
• 2nd Drive: 7 plays, 49 yards, FG, 2:31
• 3rd Drive: 6 plays, 23 yards, TD, 2:25
• 4th drive: 3 plays, 65 yards, TD, 0:49

Here’s the week before against Oregon State.

• 1st Drive: 8 plays, 74 yards, TD, 3:34
• 2nd Drive: 4 plays, 75 yards, TD, 1:25
• 3rd Drive: 8 plays, 84 yards, TD, 3:52

This team moves the ball in bunches, getting tons of bodies involved. I’m not worried about Michigan State possessing the ball very long either, as they shouldn’t be able to do much offensively. I see the Ducks tearing apart Sparty early and often, so I’ll back them to cover this big spread at home as well.

Bonus Bets: Oregon -24 (-110) MyBookie

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