Kinder’s Texas Bowl, Baylor vs LSU: NCAA Football Predictions, Odds & Best Bets

Two teams with 8-4 records don’t have to travel very far for their postseason matchup. The Baylor Bears and LSU Tigers meet at NRG Stadium in Houston for the Kinder’s Texas Bowl. These teams haven’t faced each other in nearly 40 years, with the last meeting coming in the 1985 Liberty Bowl, where Baylor won 21-7.

The Bears have been riding some momentum through the back half of the season. After starting just 2-4, the Bears have now won six straight games, with only one game finishing within single digits. Sure, they lost all three of their ranked matchups and beat up on the weaker teams in the Big 12, but regardless, the Bears are here with a chance to take down an SEC opponent.

LSU has done quite the opposite. They lost their opener to USC but went on to win six straight, including a huge win over Ole Miss. However then the wheels fell off, as they dropped three straight to Texas A&M, Alabama and Florida. Since then, they rebounded, winning against Vanderbilt and Oklahoma, but they have not won a game away from Tiger Stadium since October 19th.

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Baylor Bears vs LSU Tigers: Texas Bowl

Matchup Information – Baylor vs LSU

• Venue & Location: NRG Stadium (Houston, TX)
• Date: Tuesday, December 31st, 2024
• Kick Off: 3:30pm Eastern
• Broadcast: ESPN

Betting Odds

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Spread

• Baylor -3.5 (-105)
• LSU +3.5 (-115)

Money Line

• Baylor -170
• LSU +150

Total

• Over 62 (-110)
• Under 62 (-110)

Next Door Neighbors Go Head to Head in Houston

Garrett Nussmeier will play in this game as he is returning to LSU next year, but he’s going to have a very depleted offense. For starters, he will be without both starting tackles, and his RG is going to playing out of position to fill one of those spots. The man actually starting at RG has played just 46 snaps and his starting LT has played 78, but just 11 at that position. Protection might be a little spotty for the Tigers.

LSU will also miss TE Mason Taylor, and WRs Kyren Lacy and CJ Daniels, resulting in the Tigers having just one scholarship TE on the roster (Freshman Trey’Dez Green). Three different safeties are in the portal, and starter Sage Ryan has already committed to Ole Miss.

For Baylor, they are not expecting any starters to sit out, and instead will have a couple defensive players returning from injury. The Bears secondary will certainly be tested, as LSU is a Top 10 passing offense in the nation, in terms of play percentage and yards per game. The offensive line is Top 15 in protecting Nussmeier, but with the new bodies and shuffled parts, Baylor could make his life hard in the pocket.

Baylor Bears vs LSU Tigers Best Bets

Baylor vs LSU Prediction: Baylor Wins & Covers, Under 62

Best Bets: Baylor -3.5 (-105) BetOnline

In this spot, the Bears have a lot less question marks. The entire LSU offensive line is skeptical, and without 3 of their Top 4 pass catchers, who the hell is Nussmeier going to throw to?

Kyren Lacy, Mason Taylor and CJ Daniels combined for 48% of LSU’s receptions, half of their receiving yards, and 11 of their 26 (42%) receiving TDs. That is A LOT of production to make up for in a short amount of time. Pair that with the fact that this offensive line is playing in a bowl game when they can hardly handle dress rehearsals and things are not looking bright for the Tigers.

Baylor will not only be playing with all of their starters, but CB Carl Williams and OLB Steve Linton have been seen practicing in full pads, and should be good to go. LSU is already a very one dimensional offense with as much as they throw the ball, and now the ability to do that has shrunk. They certainly don’t have the offensive line to dominate the running game, so ultimately I see the Bears rolling over this SEC opponent. I think we can all agree we should bet on the Texas school in the Texas Bowl, it just makes sense.

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