Kansas State vs TCU Big 12 Championship Betting: Horned Frogs Remain Perfect in High-Scoring Tilt

The 2022 NCAA college football season is nearly at its end as we arrive at championship week. A lot of eyes will be on the Big 12 Championship game as the No. 10 Kansas State Wildcats look to take down the No. 3 TCU Horned Frogs. These two conference rivals collided just over a month ago, but it’s safe to say that the stakes are much higher in this Kansas State vs TCU matchup than in the previous one.

BREAKING: The Big 12 Championship is set.

It'll be undefeated TCU vs. Kansas State on Dec. 3 🏈 pic.twitter.com/8zdRnAjXol

— 247Sports (@247Sports) November 27, 2022

Kansas State has a decent amount of momentum heading into this clash, having won each of its last three outings. Last week’s 42-27 win against Kansas was an impressive performance, leaving time to tell if the Wildcats can build off that performance when it counts the most.

Meanwhile, TCU has yet to lose this season, bringing a perfect 12-0 record into this matchup. The Horned Frogs didn’t break much of a sweat in their 62-14 blowout victory over Iowa State last week, meaning they’re likely feeling well-rested ahead of the championship contest.

Here are BetOnline Sportsbook’s latest Kansas State vs TCU betting odds, as well as a prediction and best bet for the upcoming Big 12 Championship Game tilt.

Kansas State vs TCU Big 12 Championship Matchup Information and Betting Odds

Matchup Information

• Matchup: No. 10 Kansas State Wildcats (9-3, 7-2 Big 12) vs. No. 3 TCU Horned Frogs (12-0, 9-0 Big 12)
• Venue & Location: AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
• Date: Saturday, Dec. 3, 2022
• Game Time: 12 p.m. Eastern Time
• Where to Watch Kansas State vs TCU: ABC

Kansas State vs TCU Odds

Game odds are via BetOnline Sportsbook as of Wednesday, Nov. 30 at 10:11 a.m. ET. Odds from other top online sportsbooks may also be mentioned in this article.

Spread

• Kansas State Wildcats +2.5 (-110)
• TCU Horned Frogs -2.5 (-110)

Over/Under

• Over 61.5 (-110)
• Under 61.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Kansas State Wildcats +116
• TCU Horned Frogs -140

Kansas State vs TCU Betting Trends

• Kansas State is 7-2 straight up in its last nine games against the Big 12.
• TCU is 9-0 straight up in its last nine games against the Big 12.
• Kansas State is 4-1 against the spread (ATS) in its last five games against TCU.
• TCU is 4-1 ATS in its last five games played on Saturday.
• The total has hit the over in six of Kansas State’s last nine games.
• The total has hit the under in six of TCU’s last seven games against Kansas State.

Kansas State Wildcats vs TCU Horned Frogs Prediction and Picks

Kansas State vs TCU Prediction: TCU 33, Kansas State 28

Kansas State vs TCU: TCU -2.5 (Best Value: -110 at BetOnline) & Over 61.5 Points (Best Value: -110 at BetOnline)

The Kansas State-TCU rivalry has been as even as can be since the two sides first collided in 1922. They’ve met a total of 16 times since then, winning eight games apiece. Kansas State had actually won three straight meetings before the 2022 NCAAF season began.

However, the Wildcats’ success over their Big 12 rival came to an end back in Week 8 at Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth, TX. With Kansas State leading by 28-10 with 20 seconds to go in the third quarter, TCU battled back with 28 unanswered points to steal the 38-28 victory.

Final score from Fort Worth: TCU 38, Kansas State 28.

Fans stormed the field in celebration. pic.twitter.com/BP5RPb8EDb

— Kellis Robinett (@KellisRobinett) October 23, 2022

Now, TCU must recreate history to continue its perfect campaign. In other words, it won’t be shocking if the Horned Frogs turned to the run game again. It’s what helped them beat the Wildcats in the first place, recording 215 rushing yards and a pair of touchdowns on 56 carries.

The good news is that Kansas State does allow nearly 20 more rushing yards on the road (153.8) than it does at home (136.3). In fact, it was just last week that the Wildcats gave up four rushing TDs to the Jayhawks, so there’s definitely an opportunity for the Horned Frogs to have similar success.

Something else that gives TCU an advantage is Max Duggan’s play under center. The senior gunslinger set career-highs in both passing yards (3,070) and TD passes (29) this season, only throwing three interceptions in 12 starts.

Meanwhile, Kansas State turns to Will Howard yet again as Adrian Martinez remains sidelined. While Howard has looked solid with 1,224 passing yards and 13 TDs in five appearances, one of his two interceptions came in the first Kansas State vs TCU showdown of the season.

Unfortunately for Howard, TCU is averaging 1.3 interceptions over its last three games and just had a two-pick performance against Iowa State last week.

One last reason why I like the Horned Frogs is that they get stops when they matter the most, holding opponents to a 27.5% third-down conversion rate over the last three games. At the same time, the Wildcats have let opponents convert on 35.3% of third downs over that span.

After beating Kansas State by 10 points earlier this season, I can see TCU covering the spread at AT&T Stadium. The Horned Frogs are 9-2-1 ATS this season and have covered the spread in five of their last six games.

I’m also backing the total going over 61.5 points. The two Big 12 rivals cleared that total back in Week 8 and I don’t see why they can do it again considering how they average a combined 74.7 PPG. Plus, the total has gone over in six of Kansas State’s last nine games, as well as in seven of TCU’s most recent 12.

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