#16 Iowa State vs #15 Arizona State: Big 12 Championship, NCAA Football Best Bets

Iowa State and Arizona State meet in Jerry’s World in Dallas this Saturday to settle the score once and for all. The Cyclones and Sun Devils battle it out in the Big 12 Championship, with a spot in the College Football Playoff on the line. Both teams will likely miss out on a first round bye, unless Boise State loses, meaning they should give it all they’ve got. Each team finds themselves in a “win and in” situation and should take full advantage.

Iowa State opened up the season winning 7 straight games, including a miraculous victory over Iowa in Iowa City on a last second field goal. Things got shaky in the middle, losing by one to Texas Tech at home, and dropping a stinker against the Jayhawks, losing by 9. However, the Cyclones pulled themselves up, won their final three games, and are back in the Big 12 Championship since they lost to Oklahoma in 2020.

Arizona State is a conference newcomer and made the Title game in their first season! The Sun Devils won their first three, dropping one to the Red Raiders in Week 5. They won two more games, then lost again to Cincinnati on the road. They found themselves at 5-2 on the year, and rallied to win five straight games to make the Big 12 Championship. Can they keep cruising into the CFP? Or will Iowa State take down the new face in the Championship?

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#16 Iowa State vs #15 Arizona State: Big 12 Championship

Matchup Information – Iowa State vs Arizona State

• Venue & Location: AT&T Stadium (Arlington, TX)
• Date: Saturday, December 7th, 2024
• Kick Off: 12:00pm Eastern
• Broadcast: ABC

Betting Odds

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Spread

• Iowa State +2 (-110)
• Arizona State -2 (-110)

Money Line

• Iowa State +105
• Arizona State -125

Total

• Over 49.5 (-110)
• Under 49.5 (-110)

Cyclones and Sun Devils Meet in Dallas for Spot in CFP

Looking at the Cyclones schedule, they went 10-2 while winning both of their ranked matchups (@ #20 Iowa, and vs #24 Kansas State). The Sun Devils also went 10-2, but they have another ranked win under their belt, beating #16 Utah and #14 BYU and home, while upsetting #16 Kansas State in Manhattan.

Arizona State’s offense is clicking, scoring over 32 points per game this season, which is right on line with the Cyclones. Both 30th in the country in scoring offense, and they have very similar defensive stats as well. Iowa State ranks 24th, allowing 21.1 points per game while Arizona is right behind them, giving up 21.5. Point being, we are in for a hell of a game in Dallas.

I lean slightly with Arizona State and the momentum they’ve been riding. They beat down Arizona last week, who was supposed to be a decent team this year. Sure they narrowly escaped against BYU, but they beat a rock solid Kansas State team on the road. That all happened in the last three weeks. And let’s not forget, this team was picked to finish last in the conference by the Big 12 Media in the preseason. This team has a huge chip on their shoulder, and I think they have a lot more motivation on their side.

While I’m not quite willing to back the Sun Devils, I certainly lean their way, and will be backing one of their studs to have himself a game.

#16 Iowa State Cyclones vs #15 Arizona State Sun Devils Best Bets

Iowa State vs Arizona State Prediction: Arizona State Wins & Covers, Over 49.5

Best Bets: Cam Skattebo Over 120.5 Rushing Yards (-114) BetOnline

Mr. Skattebo has been running over defenses all year long, and I don’t see it being any different this weekend. Let me explain.

Iowa State has a horrendous rushing defense. They rank 94th in yards allowed per game, giving up over 173, while ranking 112th in yards per rush, allowing opponents to go for over 5.1 yards every carry on the ground. So let’s see how they do against the nation’s top running backs.

RBs vs Iowa State

• Kaleb Johnson (Iowa): 25-187-2
• RJ Harvey (UCF): 25-196-2
• Tahj Brooks (TT): 25-122-1
• Devin Neal (KU): 18-116-2

And it doesn’t stop there. Cam Skattebo has run for 121+ yards in 6/12 games this season, running for 5.7 yards per carry. He averages 20.6 carries per game, with that number inflating to 24.25 over the L4 weeks. The Cyclones are terrible at defending the run, and Skattebo has exposed such teams before this season.

Skattebo Against Rush D’s Allowing More Than 5.0 Yards/Carry

• Arizona: 21-177-3, 8.4 yards/carry
• Okie St: 23-151-1, 6.7 yards/carry
• Miss St: 33-262, 7.9 yards/carry
• Wyoming: 11-49-1, 4.5 yards/carry

Skattebo has no trouble running over GOOD rushing defenses, and he absolutely dominates ones who struggle. Against a Cyclones defense that hasn’t stopped the run all year long, I see Skattebo having a career day, punching the Sun Devils’ ticket to the College Football Playoff.

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