#5 Notre Dame vs #4 Penn State: Odds, Predictions & Key Insights | January 9, 2025

Notre Dame enters the Orange Bowl as a battle-tested team coming off a dominant performance against Georgia, showcasing one of the best defenses in the nation. Meanwhile, Penn State arrives after cruising through weaker opponents, facing their first true challenge since the Big Ten Championship. With James Franklin’s well-documented struggles in big games and Notre Dame fielding arguably their best team in decades, the Irish appear poised to punch their ticket to the National Championship.

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College football 2024: 70-62-3 (+0.96 Units)

College Football Playoffs Round Two results: 2-2 (-o.75 Units)

#5 Notre Dame vs #4 Penn State Odds

Odds are courtesy of BetOnline, a longtime fixture among the top online sports betting sites. Check out our BetOnline sportsbook review, then bag a big bonus (100% if your first deposit is with Bitcoin, Ethereum, or another cryptocurrency) to bet on College Football games.

Spread:

Notre Dame: -1.5 (-110)

Penn State: +1.5 (-110)

Total

Over: 45 (-113)

Under: 45 (-107)

Moneyline

Notre Dame: -125

Penn State: +105

#5 Notre Dame vs #4 Penn State Bet

Congratulations to James Franklin, he is finally getting the opportunity to play in a “big game” in the College Football Playoffs. It took two wins for a Franklin led teams to finally make to to a point where he has to show up as a coach. Notre Dame will be Penn State’s first true test since the Big Ten Championship.

This may be the best Notre Dame team we have seen in over four decades. The Irish made Georgia’s back up look like he did not belong to be out there. Frankly they made Georgia as a whole, look like they did not belong out there. Notre Dame held Georgia under 300 total yards, only managing to record 62 yards on the ground. Despite Notre Dame being outgained in this game, due to Georgia having to throw to try and keep the game alive. The Fighting Irish offense looked pretty solid against one of the nation’s best defenses, but their defense was always the star of the show.

Notre Dame and Penn State both play a top-5 rate of MAN coverage this season.

Riley Leonard vs MAN:

55.3% COMP (42nd)
7.3 YPA (68th)
5 TD/0 INT

Drew Allar vs MAN:

56% COMP (33rd)
7.6 YPA (51st)
9 TD/3 INT pic.twitter.com/vSJOaycxHk

— Tyler MacKillop (@TylerMacKillop) January 7, 2025

The Irish now face the challenge of containing a Nittany Lions team that has benefited from a relatively easy path, having played two of the weakest teams in the playoff bracket. Personally, I see little reason to consider Penn State a serious threat in this matchup. They have been coasting through the tournament but are about to face a legitimate test. James Franklin’s struggles against strong opponents are well-documented—his tendency to overthink game plans often leads to offensive shortcomings at critical moments.

Will Penn State’ Offense Show Up?

While Penn State boasts a fantastic defense, as seen in their ability to hold Boise State’s star running back Ashton Jeanty to under 110 rushing yards, their offense remains a concern. The last strong defense they faced was Ohio State, resulting in a 20-13 loss on November 2. Although they’ve cruised through conference play and the playoffs against weaker opponents, their offensive production falters against elite defenses. Even in their loss to Oregon, the Nittany Lions’ offense looked strong, but that was largely due to Oregon’s subpar defense.

As I mentioned in my Cotton Bowl write-up, the winner of the Sugar Bowl was always going to be my pick to take down Penn State. Now, I’m confidently choosing Notre Dame to advance to the National Championship.

Simply put, you can never trust James Franklin when the lights are brightest.

Bet: Notre Dame Moneyline (-125) on BetOnline

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