#11 Xavier vs #6 Illinois: NCAA Basketball Odds & Best Bets

From First Four, to Round of 64. The 11th seeded Xavier Musketeers beat the Texas Longhorns of the SEC and advanced to face a Big Ten team in the first round. The 6th ranked Illini of Illinois have been very, very streaky this year, but when they put all the pieces together, they are a very dangerous team.

Xavier finished 5th in the Big East but did not win their matchup against Marquette in the conference tournament. Now they are coming off a First Four win in Dayton. Texas is a battle tested team that the Musketeers were able to out tough down the stretch, but I’m not sure they’ll have the fire power to do so against Illinois.

The Illini are as healthy as they’ve ever been, and I would be very afraid of this team if they got hot. Will they advance to a second round matchup against Kentucky (or Troy)? Or will Xavier find a way to string together a couple of wins?

#11 Xavier Musketeers vs #6 Illinois Fighting Illini: Round of 64

Matchup Information – Xavier vs Illinois

• Venue & Location: Fiserv Forum (Milwaukee, WI)
• Date: Friday, March 21st, 2025
• Tip Off: 9:45pm Eastern
• Broadcast: CBS

Betting Odds

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Spread

• Xavier +4 (-110)
• Illinois -4 (-110)

Money Line

• Xavier +160
• Illinois -180

Total

• Over 161.5 (-113)
• Under 161.5 (-107)

Can Musketeers Slow Down Illini Offense?

Illinois is a team that is “go-go-go”. They rank Top 20 in possessions per game, are very stacked in terms of personnel and are fully healthy. After losing some tough games to Wisconsin, Michigan State and Duke, Illinois ended the season with four dominant wins before falling to Maryland, who is very good. This team was very streaky all year, and in my mind, Xavier shouldn’t even be here.

The Musketeers not only play in the Big East (gross), but they also had just one (1) Quad 1 win this season. They beat the Marquette Golden Eagles on the road, which is their one and only solid win this season. Sure, they ended the regular season on a 7 game winning streak. but against who?!? Providence? Butler? Seton Hall? Congrats, you beat teams that wouldn’t win a game in the SEC or Big 12.

Despite having a good win against Texas (I leaned with the Horns), I still have no faith in Xavier. Illinois is great on both sides of the ball, and I see their talent shining brighter on the big stage. Xavier is Top 31 in pace, so expect plenty of possessions back and forth in this game.

#11 Xavier Musketeers vs #6 Illinois Fighting Illini Best Bets

Xavier vs Illinois Prediction: Illinois Wins & Covers, Over 161.5

Best Bets: Illinois -4 (-110) BetOnline

Full disclosure, I snagged the ML at (-154) last night but still endorse the spread here. There should be plenty of possessions for the Illini to cover this number.

Xavier ranks Bottom 12 in offensive rebounding, and over their last 10 games are 316th in eFG% defense. That won’t work against Illinois. You need to find a way to stop them, because they are equipped for a shootout. Illinois ranks 9th overall in offensive efficiency, 63rd in eFG%, and are Top 20 in offensive rebounding the basketball. Defensively, the Illini are 45th overall, 31st in eFG% defense and Top 40 in FT Rate defense as well.

Like I said, they are equipped on both sides of the ball for whatever goes down. With two very speedy teams, I lean more with the Illini to get those key stops defensively, while Xavier may experience some offensive fatigue after a big win.

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