Weber State vs Montana State Basketball Prediction & Picks (2023 Big Sky Semifinal)

Montana State will look to move within a win of back-to-back Big Sky Conference championships tonight as the second-seeded Bobcats take on third-seeded Weber State (11:00 pm ET, ESPN2).

The winner of tonight’s semifinal matchup between the Bobcats (23-9) and Wildcats (18-14) will face the winner of the matchup between #9 Northern Arizona and #4 Montana in tomorrow night’s championship game (11:30 pm ET, ESPN2).

Who will move on in Boise? Read on for our Weber State vs Montana State basketball prediction and picks.

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Weber State vs Montana State Odds

Odds for Weber State vs Montana State are via BetOnline as of Tuesday, March 7, 2023.

Spread

• Weber State +5.5 (-102)
• Montana State -5.5 (-120)

Over/Under

• Over 129.5 (-110)
• Under 129.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Weber State +198
• Montana State -245

Will the Overs Continue for Montana State and Weber State?

Heading into tonight’s game, overs have occurred frequently for both the Bobcats and Wildcats.

In Weber State’s last dozen games, the over is 9-3-0. That includes their 70-64 quarterfinal win over Sacramento State, which went well over the total of 124.5.

For Montana State, the over is 5-2-0 in their last seven games. That also includes their quarterfinal win, with their 84-73 win over Northern Colorado going well over the total of 146.5.

Will the run of overs continue with tonight’s game?

There have been 130 or more points in 15 of Montana State’s 19 Big Sky games and 23 of their 30 games against their Division I opponents this season. On the other side, there have been 130 or more points in 12 of Weber State’s 19 Big Sky games and 21 of their 30 games against Division I opponents this season.

Neither of the regular season matchups between the Bobcats and Wildcats featured a lot of scoring, but the latter matchup at Weber State did reach that number. In the matchup at Montana State, the Bobcats won 67-52, while the Wildcats took a 73-63 win in the rematch at Weber State.

Weber State vs Montana State Prediction and Picks

Weber State vs Montana State Prediction: Montana State to win

Weber State vs Montana State Picks: Weber State/Montana State over (Best Value: over 129 at BetUS) & Montana State team total over 67.5 (Best Value: BetUS)

At KenPom, Montana State is projected to claim a 68-63 win, which is in line with my thought that the over is the play.

Montana State has racked up the free throws lately. In their last six games, the Bobcats have had 28, 41, 33, 43, 16, and 27 attempts from the foul line, with the outlier being their 79-74 win at Eastern Washington to close out the regular season.

As long as this one isn’t a blowout, late free throws should be a factor tonight, and both of these teams are solid from the stripe. Weber State is shooting 76.6%, while Montana State hits their foul shots at a 75.6% clip.

I’m passing on the spread here, but I do expect the Bobcats, who haven’t lost since their loss at Weber State, to pick up their sixth straight win and hit on their team total over.

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