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Utah State vs Missouri Basketball Prediction & PIcks (March Madness 2023 First Round)

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One of the highest-scoring games of the first round of March Madness could happen between Utah State and Missouri, who will meet today in South Regional action in Sacramento, California (1:40 pm ET, TNT).

The tenth-seeded Aggies (26-8) and seventh-seeded Tigers are both back in the Big Dance this year after missing last year’s tournament.

Utah State finished tied for 2nd in the Mountain West and lost to San Diego State in the MWC tournament title game, while Missouri finished tied for fourth in the SEC and lost to Alabama in the SEC tourney semis.

Will the Aggies advance to the round of 32 for the first time since 2001, or will the Tigers advance for the first time since 2010? Read on for our Utah State vs Missouri basketball prediction and picks.

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Utah State vs Missouri Odds

Odds are via BetOnline as of Thursday, March 16, 2023.

Spread

Utah State -1.5 (-110)
Missouri +1.5 (-110)

Over/Under

Over 155.5 (-110)
Under 155.5 (-110)

Moneyline

Utah State -120
Missouri +100

Will Utah State and Missouri Make It Rain from Outside?

Based on what we have seen from both the Aggies and Tigers this season, there is good reason why this matchup is expected to be one of the highest-scoring games of the first round.

Utah State and Missouri are two of the top offensive teams in college basketball, and perimeter shooting is a big part of that.

Fine margins separate the two teams in the NCAA’s rankings in three-pointers per game, with Utah State 22nd and Missouri 23rd. The Aggies have made 321 threes in 34 games, an average of 9.44 threes per game. The Tigers have made 309 threes in 33 games, an average of 9.36 threes per game.

Offensive Statistics & Metrics for Utah State and Missouri

Utah State

PPG: 78.6 (32nd in D-I)
FG%: 48.0% (23rd in D-I)
3PT%: 39.3% (5th in D-I)
2PT% (Division I Games Only): 54.1% (36th in D-I)
FT%: 76.4% (31st in D-I)
Offensive Efficiency (KenPom): 13th

Missouri

PPG: 79.5 (22nd in Division I)
FG%: 47.3% (32nd in D-I)
3PT%: 36.1% (82nd in D-I)
2PT% (Division I Games Only): 55.9% (41st in D-I)
FT%: 75.8 (38th in D-I)
Offensive Efficiency (KenPom): 10th

Utah State has scored 80+ points 15 times this season, and when they have hit that mark, the Aggies are 15-0 SU and 13-2-0 ATS. In those 15 games, the over is 12-2-1, and the over is 19-13-1 overall in the Aggies’ Division I games this season.

On the other side, Missouri has scored 80+ points 19 times this season. Like Utah State, they have won every game, going 19-0 SU, and they are also 11-7-1 ATS. In those 19 games, the over is 15-4-0, and the over is 18-15-0 overall in Missouri’s games this season.

So, if both teams score into the 80s, someone is going to lose for the first time when scoring 80 points this season.

Tigers Are More Seasoned Against Quality Opposition

If we want to take a look at strength of competition and success against said competition to help determine who we think is more likely to win this matchup, Missouri goes into this game with 16 games against teams who made the NCAA Tournament.

In those games, they are 8-8 SU and 7-9 ATS, and the over is 7-9-0. They beat Tennessee twice (away and in the SEC Tournament), defeated Illinois in St. Louis, and beat Southeast Missouri State, Kentucky, Arkansas, Texas A&M, Mississippi State and Iowa State at home.

Utah State, meanwhile, has played 10 games against teams who made the March Madness bracket. In those games, they went 5-5 SU and ATS, and the over is 5-5-0. They have logged wins over Utah Valley (home), Oral Roberts (home), Nevada (home), and Boise State (home and in the MWC tourney).

Utah State vs Missouri Prediction and Picks

Prediction for Utah State vs Missouri: Missouri to win

Picks for Utah State vs Missouri: Missouri ML (Best Value: Bovada Sportsbook) & Utah State/Missouri over 155.5 (Best Value: BetUS)

Where to Bet on Utah State vs Missouri

Here are four legal sports betting sites that we highly recommend and have reviewed, where you can bet on this year’s NCAA men’s and women’s tournaments, as well as the 2023 NIT.