UNC vs NC State Basketball Prediction, Odds & Picks: Will There Be a Rivalry Upset in Raleigh?

Last night, the top two teams in the men’s college basketball rankings were upset on the road, as #1 Purdue went down at Nebraska and #2 Houston fell at Iowa State. Tonight, a few more top-10 teams could find themselves in peril on the road, including #7 UNC, who faces a rivalry matchup at NC State (8:00 pm ET, ESPN).

The Tar Heels (11-3, 3-0 ACC) are off to a perfect start in conference play and have won four straight games since losing to Kentucky in Atlanta last month.

But their hot streak could be in jeopardy tonight against the Wolfpack (11-3, 3-0 ACC), who are looking to start ACC play 4-0 for the first time since the 1973-74 season, when future Hall of Famer David Thompson led the program to its first national championship.

NC State has opened ACC play with road wins over Boston College and Notre Dame and a home win over Virginia, but they are currently on the outside looking in of major March Madness projections. A win tonight, however, would serve as a major boost for their hopes of reaching the Big Dance for the third time under Kevin Keatts.

UNC vs NC State Odds

Odds are courtesy of BetOnline. If you’re interested in trying them out, we recommend checking out our BetOnline review.

Spread

• UNC -3.5 (-115)
• NC State +3.5 (-105)

Over/Under

• Over 154 (-110)
• Under 154 (-110)

Moneyline

• UNC -165
• NC State +145

Last Five Games for UNC

• Clemson (1/6 – away): won 65-55
• Pittsburgh (1/2 – away): won 70-57
• Charleston Southern (12/29 – home): won 105-60
• Oklahoma (12/20 – Charlotte, NC): won 81-69
• Kentucky (12/16 – Atlanta, GA): lost 87-83

Last Five Games for NC State

• Virginia (1/6 – home): won 76-60
• Notre Dame (1/3 – away): won 54-52
• Detroit Mercy (12/23 – home): won 83-66
• Saint Louis (12/20 – home): won 82-70
• Tennessee (12/16 – San Antonio, TX/Hall of Fame Series): lost 79-70

Players to Watch for UNC

• RJ Davis: 20.6 PPG, 3.4 RPG, 3.6 APG, 1.3 SPG, 39.6% 3PT
• Armando Bacot: 14.9 PPG, 11.1 RPG, 1.4 APG, 1.9 BPG, 52.9% FG
• Harrison Ingram: 13.1 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 2.6 APG, 1.5 SPG, 42.6% 3PT
• Cormac Ryan: 11.0 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 1.5 APG, 1.2 SPG
• Elliot Cadeau: 6.8 PPG, 1.6 RPG, 3.4 APG

Players to Watch for NC State

• DJ Horne: 14.4 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 2.6 APG, 1.4 SPG, 42.9% 3PT
• Jayden Taylor: 13.1 PPG, 3.7 RPG, 1.5 APG, 1.5 SPG
• J. Burns Jr.: 12.6 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 2.8 APG, 53.0% FG
• Casey Morsell: 11.4 PPG, 2.9 RPG, 1.9 APG
• Dennis Parker Jr.: 7.3 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 50.0% FG

UNC vs NC State Prediction and Picks

Prediction: NC State to win

The last time the unranked Wolfpack hosted the ranked Tar Heels, NC State scored a 79-76 upset over #17 UNC on December 22, 2020.

Will a similar result happen at PNC Arena tonight?

While these two teams have similar records, the Wolfpack are not in the NCAA Tournament mix because only two of their wins have come against teams currently ranked in the top 200 of the NET (#56 Virginia, #75 Boston College, and The Citadel, who comes in at #186).

But they were excellent in Saturday’s win over Virginia, shooting nearly 50% from the field, making ten three-pointers for just the fourth time this season, and holding the Cavaliers to 43.4% from the field.

The Tar Heels, who are tied for fifth in the country in made free throws per game (19.3), 10^th in adjusted offensive efficiency 24^th in scoring (83.6 PPG, 2^nd in the ACC), and 30^th in average offensive possession length present a much different offensive challenge than the Cavaliers.

But the Wolfpack can run too, and while they could be a bit accurate from the field—45.0% is 10^th in the 15-team ACC—they do a great job of taking care of the ball, ranking third in the country in fewest turnovers per game.

Only four UNC opponents this season have shot 45.0% or better (Northern Iowa, Arkansas, Tennessee, and UConn), but if the Wolfpack can even hit their season average while keeping the turnovers at a minimum, it will bode well for their chances to win. Thus far this season, they are 6-1 when shooting 45.0% or better, with the lone loss coming to BYU.

I think playing at home will bring out NC State’s best, and I really like their chances to have their first 4-0 ACC mark in the shot-clock era.

UNC vs NC State Picks

All picks listed below are courtesy of BetOnline unless otherwise noted. Bet these plays there and get a 100% BONUS on your first cryptocurrency deposit.

Spread & Over/Under Picks: NC State +3.5 & UNC/NC State over 154.5

Best Player Prop Bets for UNC vs NC State: RJ Davis over 2.5 made threes (+120 at BetOnline and Bovada) & DJ Horne over 21.5 points + rebounds + assists (-115 at Bovada)

Looking to learn more about the ins and outs of betting on NCAA basketball? Check out our college basketball betting guide.