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UAB va Vanderbilt Basketball Prediction & Picks (2023 NIT Quarterfinals)

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UAB va Vanderbilt Basketball Prediction & Picks (2023 NIT Quarterfinals) cover

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Exactly a year ago today, Vanderbilt suffered a heartbreaking loss at Xavier in the NIT quarterfinals. Tonight, the Commodores face another shot to make the NIT semis, as they face Jelly Walker and UAB (7:00 pm ET, ESPN2).

Last year, the Commodores held a nine-point lead over the Musketeers with six minutes. But they couldn’t hold that lead, as the home team rallied for a 75-73 win.

This year’s Commodores (22-14) get a crack at clinching a trip to the semis at home, this time against the Blazers (27-9). Will they make the most of this opportunity? Read on for our UAB vs Vanderbilt prediction and picks.

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UAB vs Vanderbilt Odds

Odds are via BetOnline as of Wednesday, March 22, 2023.

Spread

UAB -1.5 (-108)
Vanderbilt +1.5 (-112)

Over/Under

Over 152.5 (-110)
Under 152.5 (-110)

Moneyline

UAB -122
Vanderbilt +102

Hot Teams Tangle in the Home of Hot Chicken

Both the Blazers and Commodores would have been disappointed to not end up in the NCAA Tournament, but they haven’t let that disappointment stop them from taking their hot form into the NIT and making the most of the opportunity for postseason basketball.

A run of five losses in six games in Conference USA play dealt a mortal blow to UAB’s chances of potentially making a run at an at-large bid. But since then, they are 14-2 SU and 10-6-0 ATS, including 10-1 SU and 8-3-0 ATS in their last 11 games.

In the NIT, they haven’t messed around, throttling former C-USA rivals Southern Miss by 28 and following it up with an 18-point win over Morehead State, who won at Clemson in the first round.

That UAB scored 88 and 77 points against Southern Miss and Morehead State without Jelly Walker shooting 6 of 23 overall and scoring fewer points (21) combined than he averages per game this season (22.6) is notable.

This is the first stretch this season that Walker has gone three games without a 20-point game. So, he’s certainly due to break out tonight in Nashville.

Fortunately, Vanderbilt has a hot scorer to counter with in Tyrin Lawrence.

Lawrence scored 25 points and seven rebounds in the first-round win over Yale, and he went for 24 points and nine rebounds in the second-round win over Michigan. Over his last seven games, Lawrence is averaging 20.6 PPG and has four 20-point games.

Lawrence is a big reason why the Commodores are 12-2 SU and 10-4-0 ATS in their last 14 games.

UAB vs Vanderbilt Prediction and Picks

Prediction for UAB vs Vanderbilt: Vanderbilt to win

Picks for UAB vs Vanderbilt: UAB/Vanderbilt over 152.5 (Best Value: BetMGM) & Jordan “Jelly” Walker total points over (Best Value: over 21.5 points @ Bovada Sportsbook)

UAB’s last three games have gone under, and the under is 6-2-0 in their last eight games. But the over is 22-13-0 in their games this season, and they have not had four straight unders at any point in the last two seasons.

This jives well with the fact that the over is 9-5-0 in Vanderbilt’s last 14 games and 20-15-1 overall in their games this season. Both of their NIT games have gone under, but I don’t expect a third straight under for them or a fourth straight for UAB.

This one could really go either way, so I’m avoiding any side plays. If I had to go with a side, I’d roll with Vanderbilt to come out on top at home, but I’m not recommending it as a play.

Where to Bet on UAB vs Vanderbilt

Here are four legal sports betting sites that we highly recommend and have reviewed, where you can bet on this year's NCAA men’s and women’s tournaments, as well as the 2023 NIT.