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Toledo vs Ball State Basketball Prediction, Odds & Picks

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Tonight, Toledo will clinch its third outright Mid-American Conference regular season title with a win at Ball State (6:00 pm ET, CBS Sports Network).

The Rockets (24-6, 15-2 MAC) will clinch with a win over the Cardinals (20-10, 11-6 MAC) in Muncie, regardless of the outcome of the matchup between and Kent State (24-6, 14-3 MAC).

However, if the Rockets lose and the Golden Flashes beat the Zips, Kent State will claim the top seed for the conference tournament by virtue of a 75-63 win over Toledo on January 10.

Will the Cardinals give the Golden Flashes a helping hand, or will the Rockets make it a three-peat? Read on for our Toledo vs Ball State basketball prediction and picks.

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Toledo vs Ball State Odds

Odds for Toledo vs Ball State are via BetOnline as of Friday, March 3, 2023, at 12:10 pm ET.

Spread

Toledo -3.5 (-114)
Ball State +3.5 (-106)

Over/Under

Over 158.5 (-108)
Under 158.5 (-112)

Moneyline

Toledo -178
Ball State +146

Can Ball State Claim a Season Sweep of Toledo?

Ball State is responsible for Toledo’s only other conference loss this season, and they are the only team this season to go into Savage Arena and beat the Rockets.

In the conference opener for both teams, the Cardinals upset the odds as an 8.5-point underdog in a 90-83 win on January 3.

In the game, both teams shot over 50% from the field, but better shooting from three (11 of 22 versus 7 of 18 for Toledo) helped propel Ball State to the road win.

Since falling at Kent State to drop to 1-2 in MAC action, the Rockets have won 14 straight games. There have not been many teams who have been able to keep up with Toledo in this streak, in which they are 10-4 ATS and have won nine games by double digits.

Ahead of tonight’s matchup in Muncie, the Rockets have won their last three games by 21 (vs Akron), 30 (vs Buffalo), and 34 points (at Central Michigan).

After semifinal losses in the last two years, Toledo will go into next week’s MAC tournament in Cleveland expecting to finally reach the Big Dance for the first time since 1980 led by the scoring that has produced those big wins.

Offensive Statistics & Metrics for Toledo

Offensive Numbers for Toledo in the 2022-23 Season

Points Per Game: 85.7 – 1st in MAC, 2nd in Division I
FG%: 49.4% – 1st in MAC, 6th in Division I
3PT%: 39.9% – 1st in MAC, 4th in Division I
2PT% (Division I Games Only): 54.2% – 1st in the MAC, 38th in Division I
FT%: 77.3% – 2nd in the MAC, 18th in Division I
Offensive Efficiency (KenPom): 10th – 1st in the MAC

The Rockets are second in Division I in scoring, trailing only Gonzaga (88.0 PPG). A chunk of that production comes from their prolific trio of RayJ Dennis (19.0 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 5.9 APG), Jared Shumate (16.7 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 1.2 BPG), and Setric Millner Jr. (16.0 PPG, 5.8 RPG).

With how much Toledo typically scores, it’s no surprise that overs have been frequent in their games. In fact, the over is 19-9-0 in their Division I games.

However, that includes a somewhat underwhelming 9-8-0 in conference games, with only three of eight road games going over.

That is a product of having 14 conference games with totals of 150+ points, as the total has gone over in just half of those games.

Toledo vs Ball State Prediction and Picks

Rockets vs Cardinals Prediction: Toledo to win

Rockets vs Cardinals Picks: Toledo team total over 81.5 (Best Value: Bovada Sportsbook)

Ball State has lost three of four, but all three have been on the road, and while they went 4-5 SU and 5-4 ATS on the road in conference play, they are 7-1 SU and 4-4 ATS at home.

So, I’m certainly not dismissing the Cardinals’ chances to throw a wrench in Toledo’s title plans.

But I do think the Rockets will take care of business tonight in Muncie, and while I don’t love the spread or total here, I do really like the over on Toledo’s team total.

The Rockets have scored more than 81 points 14 times in MAC action this season, including five times in eight road games and in each of their last five games overall.