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Tennessee vs Kentucky Basketball Prediction & Picks: Will the Wildcats all but lock up a Big Dance berth?
Written by: Eddie Griffin
Last Updated:
Read Time: 4 minutes
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After defeating top-ranked Alabama on Wednesday night, Tennessee will look to avoid being an upset victim this afternoon as they visit Kentucky (1:00 pm ET, CBS).
The tenth-ranked Vols (20-6, 9-4 SEC) ensured that Alabama’s stay atop the college basketball rankings will likely be short with a 68-59 win, handing the Tide their first SEC loss this season.
They weren’t the only ones to get a big win on Wednesday night, as Kentucky (17-9, 8-5 SEC) went into Starkville and pulled out a 71-68 win over a surging Mississippi State squad.
The win was significant for the Wildcats’ NCAA Tournament hopes, and a win today would only enhance their position in the field of 68.
Who will come out on top at Rupp Arena? Read on for our Tennessee vs Kentucky basketball prediction, as well as our picks for today’s matchup in Lexington.
Tennessee vs Kentucky Odds
Odds are via BetOnline as of Saturday, February 18, 2023, at 8:50 am ET. This article may also include odds from our other recommended legal sports betting sites.
Spread
- Tennessee -2.5 (-102)
- Kentucky +2.5 (-120)
Over/Under
- Over 135.5 (-110)
- Under 135.5 (-110)
Moneyline
- Tennessee -130
- Kentucky +108
Will Shorthanded Kentucky Be Able to Survive Tough Tennessee?
In Wednesday’s win at Mississippi State, Kentucky used an 18-2 run to take control of the game in the second half then had to hang on as the Bulldogs tried to overcome a 13-point deficit.
While things did get tight in the end, the win over MSU, who had won five straight games, was a resounding response after a 15-point home loss to Arkansas and a road loss to Georgia.
Oscar Tshiebwe did what Oscar Tshiebwe often does, compiling 18 points and 11 rebounds, while there were big contributions from Jacob Toppin (15 points), Antonio Reeves (4 of 7 3PT, 14 points), and Chris Livingston (13 points). And Cason Wallace compensated for a 1 of 13 shooting performance by dishing out 11 assists.
The win came without guards Sahvir Wheeler, who has missed the last three games, and CJ Fredrick, who has missed the last two games. The duo’s status for today’s game is uncertain, but Kentucky needs all the bodies it can possibly have for a matchup with Tennessee.
The Vols may be shorthanded themselves, as they may or may not have either Josiah-Jordan James (9.5 PPG, 5.3 RPG) or Julian Phillips (9.0 PPG, 4.8 RPG).
James, who has missed ten games this season, missed the win over Alabama and last Saturday’s loss to Missouri, while Phillips missed his first game of the season on Wednesday.
Where to Bet on Tennessee vs Kentucky
That said, Kentucky won 63-56 in Knoxville on January 14 without Wheeler and with James and Phillips both on the floor for Tennessee.
UK has had some less than stellar showings on the defensive end this season, but that afternoon’s performance was not one of them.
The Vols were just 3 of 21 from three, and the Wildcats were +20 in the rebounding battle, limiting Tennessee, who is fourth in the country in offensive rebounding, to just four offensive boards.
Free-throw shooting was key to the win in Knoxville, and it was also key in Wednesday’s win in Starkville.
For the season, Kentucky is shooting only 69.7% from the stripe, which is 11th in the SEC. But in the first meeting against Tennessee, they made 22 of 25 (88%) foul shots, while they were 15 of 20 (75%) against Mississippi State.
Tennessee vs Kentucky Prediction and Picks
Volunteers vs Wildcats Prediction: Kentucky to win
Volunteers vs Wildcats Picks: Kentucky ML (Best Value: BetMGM) & Tennessee team total under 68.5 (Bovada Sportsbook)
If the Wildcats do what they did the first time around against the Vols, they will win.
That, of course, is easier said than done, especially for a team that has had the ups and downs that Kentucky has this season.
But a lot of the same things that helped them get the job done at Tennessee in the first meeting helped them get the job done at Mississippi State, and that’s something to take into this matchup.
The Bulldogs shot 50% from the field, but they were just 6 of 20 (30%) from three, and UK outrebounded MSU by 16. And as mentioned above, they hit their free throws, including a 9 of 10 effort in the final 3:14 of the game to help close out the win.
This is a team that has been hard to trust as a bettor, but this isn’t a team of scrubs, and winning at Rupp Arena is no easy feat, even if South Carolina, the second-worst team in the SEC, was able to do it.
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