TCU vs Kansas Basketball Prediction & Picks: How will the Jayhawks respond after Kansas State loss?

After suffering a rare loss to rival Kansas State, Kansas has no time to dwell on what could and should have been as they welcome TCU to Allen Fieldhouse this afternoon.

The matchup between the #2 Jayhawks (16-2, 5-1 Big 12) and Horned Frogs (14-4, 3-3 Big 12) is set for a 1:00 pm ET (12:00 pm local time) tip, and it will be televised by CBS.

KU has lived dangerously all season but had emerged unscathed from all of their close games until Tuesday night in Manhattan, when they couldn’t get one last stop in overtime against the rival Wildcats, who got the last score and the last laugh in an 83-82 win.

But the reigning national champions are still tied atop the Big 12 record-wise with K-State and Iowa State, and they are still very much on course for yet another Big 12 crown.

Will the Jayhawks bounce back from Tuesday’s disappointment to hand the Horned Frogs a fourth loss in five games? Read on for our TCU vs Kansas basketball prediction, as well as our picks and analysis for today’s matchup in Lawrence.

TCU vs Kansas Odds

Odds are via BetOnline as of Saturday, January 21, 2023, at 8:50 am ET. This article may also include odds from our other recommended legal sports betting sites.

Spread

• TCU +7.5 (-110)
• Kansas -7.5 (-110)

Over/Under

• Over 145.5 (-110)
• Under 145.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• TCU +250
• Kansas -315

Will TCU Be Plagued by Poor Perimeter Shooting & Turnovers Again?

TCU opened Big 12 play with a home win over Texas Tech and a win at Baylor, but the Horned Frogs have not been able to keep up the momentum.

On Wednesday, they fell for the third time in four games and dropped their second straight road game, as West Virginia ended a five-game losing streak with a 74-65 win in Morgantown.

Yet again, TCU shot well on two-pointers but failed to fire from outside. They made 20 of 34 (58.8%) of their two-point shots, but they were only 2 of 8 from three.

And just like in their four-point home loss to Iowa State, mistakes hurt the Horned Frogs, as they turned the ball over 19 times against the Mountaineers.

Still, after trailing by 15 at halftime and by 17 with a little over 11 minutes left, TCU was able to make it a two-point game with five minutes left. But they had more turnovers (three) than made field goals (two) in the last five minutes, and West Virginia pulled away for the win.

After opening Big 12 play by hitting 11 threes in three straight games, Kansas has struggled from outside themselves. Against K-State, they made only 6 of 29 (20.7%) from three, and they are 16 of 61 (26.2%) from outside in their last three games.

However, the Jayhawks have made 36 of 58 (62.1%) of their two-pointers in their last two games against Iowa State and Kansas State.

That might be rather ominous for TCU, based on what they have done defensively–or have not done, rather–as of late.

Opponents’ Two-Point Shooting in TCU’s Big 12 Losses

• Iowa State: 27 of 44 (61.4%)
• Texas: 28 of 50 (56%)
• West Virginia: 21 of 39 (53.8%)

Also, a team that has shot 40% or better from three 10 times in 18 games this season is unlikely to struggle from outside for too long.

TCU vs Kansas Prediction and Picks

TCU vs Kansas Prediction: Kansas to win

TCU vs Kansas Picks: Kansas team total over 76.5 (Best Value: BetOnline) & Gradey Dick over 2.5 made threes (Bovada Sportsbook)

I expect a strong response from Kansas after losing to Kansas State for just the second time in 17 meetings.

The Horned Frogs have some major weak spots on both ends of the court, and though the Jayhawks have let a lot of teams hang around far longer than they should have thus far this season, Tuesday’s loss should serve as a reminder of how you will get burned eventually if you play with fire too often.

I expect Dick to play a key role in a Kansas win after he was 1 of 8 from three and 4 of 13 overall and fouled out against the Wildcats.

Here’s what the fantastic freshman has done thus far in the following game each time he has made just one three in a game:

• 25% (1 of 4) vs North Dakota State: 25% (1 of 4) vs Duke
• 25% (1 of 4) vs Duke: 66.7% (4 of 6) vs Southern Utah
• 33.3% (1 of 3) vs Seton Hall: 60% (3 of 5) at Missouri
• 20% (1 of 5) at Texas Tech: 66.7% (4 of 6) at West Virginia
• 25% (1 of 4) vs Oklahoma: 55.6% (5 of 9) vs Iowa State

With plus odds at Bovada Sportsbook, this is one of my favorite college basketball bets for today.

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