#16 St. Francis (PA) vs #16 Alabama State: First Four Best Bets

It all begins tonight. The March Madness Tournament starts with the First Four in Dayton tonight and tomorrow. We get two teams from the bubble playing in for the final 11 seeds as North Carolina takes on San Diego State later in the evening. But first, two automatic qualifiers play for the chance to face the #1 overall seeded Auburn Tigers in the Round of 64, as the Alabama State Hornets take on the St. Francis Red Flash.

Saint Francis upset top seeded Central Connecticut in the NEC Championship game, while #5 seed Alabama State made a run in the SWAC and beat #2 Jackson State in the Championship to punch their ticket. Who will win this showdown tonight in the First Four and make it to the Round of 64?

#16 St. Francis Red Flash vs#16 Alabama State: First Four

Matchup Information – St. Francis vs Alabama State

• Venue & Location: UD Arena (Dayton, OH)
• Date: Tuesday, March 18th, 2025
• Tip Off: 6:40pm Eastern
• Broadcast: truTV

Betting Odds

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Spread

• St. Francis +4 (-114)
• Alabama State -4 (-106)

Money Line

• St. Francis +160
• Alabama State -180

Total

• Over 138.5 (-107)
• Under 138.5 (-113)

Who Will Move on to Face the Tigers?

Let’s talk turkey with these two conference champions. I’ll just put some advanced analytics out there for a quick comparison. All numbers courtesy of Bart Torvik (I prefer it over KenPom, sue me).

St. Francis (PA) Red Flash

• 301st overall
• Adjusted Off/Def Efficiency: 294th/289th
• Effective FG% Off/Def: 133rd/206th
• TO Rate: 322nd
• OR Rate: 311th
• FT Rate Off/Def: 357th/71st

Overall, they aren’t that great. They shoot plenty of threes but not very well and their 179th in possessions per game. The Red Flash clearly don’t get to the free throw line all that often, but do a great job of keeping their opponents off the stripe as well.

Alabama State Hornets

• 274th overall
• Adjusted Off/Def Efficiency: 281st/246th
• Effective FG% Off/Def: 327th/149th
• TO Rate: 5th
• FT Rate Off/Def: 274th/308th

Unlike St. Francis, the Hornets send their foes to the line plenty, and don’t make up for it themselves. Although they take fantastic care of the basketball, they shoot tons of threes and aren’t very good from anywhere on the court. They run a bit faster than the Red Flash, so I could see these two teams getting into some back and forth. Ultimately, the Hornets are much better defensively than on the offensive end, while their opponents are the opposite.

But recently that Red Flash defense has stepped up, and tonight I think it could propel them into the next round.

St Francis (PA) Red Flash vs Alabama State Hornets Best Bets

St. Francis vs Alabama State Prediction: St. Francis (PA) Wins Outright, Under 138.5

Best Bets: St. Francis (PA) +4 (-114) BetOnline

Back the Red Flash with me tonight. I’ll admit I do lean the under as well, but it’s steamed down 4 points from the opener so I’ll leave it alone. Instead, let me talk about this St. Francis defense.

Sure, they rank 289th overall and 206th in eFG%. But they have held two of their last three opponents to under 38% eFG%, including holding CCSU to just 43 points in the NEC Championship. And trust me, the Hornets offense is not that great. The Red Flash closed out the regular season winning three straight overtime games, then won three more in the conference tourney by just 3 points a piece. This team knows how to win in crunch time, and even though the Hornets have won 11 of their last 13 since February 3rd, I think their Cinderella run comes to an end tonight.

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