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Southeast Missouri St vs Morehead St Prediction, Odds & Picks

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The Ohio Valley Conference will hand out the first automatic bid to this year’s NCAA Tournament come tomorrow night. But will top seed Morehead State be in the title tilt? Southeast Missouri State stands in their way tonight (8:00 pm ET, ESPNU).

The Eagles (21-10, 14-4 OVC) and Redhawks (17-16, 10-8) will meet in the first semifinal tonight in Evansville, Indiana, while #2 seed Tennessee Tech will meet #3 seed UT Martin in the second semifinal (10:30 pm ET, ESPNU).

Will the Eagles move within a win of their second Big Dance berth in three seasons? Read on for our Southeast Missouri State vs Morehead State prediction and picks.

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Southeast Missouri State vs Morehead State Odds

Odds for Southeast Missouri State vs Morehead State are via BetOnline as of 2:49 pm ET.

Spread

Southeast Missouri State +3.5 (-102)
Morehead State -3.5 (-120)

Over/Under

Over 141.5 (-110)
Under 141.5 (-110)

Moneyline

Southeast Missouri State +150
Morehead State -182

Will Defense Continue to Dictate Morehead State’s Success?

When these two teams met for the first time this season, Morehead State allowed a season-high 91 points in a five-point loss at home on January 14.

That loss dropped the Eagles to 10-9 overall and 3-3 in OVC play. Since then, they have won 11 of 12 games, with the only blemish a 72-68 loss at Arkansas-Little Rock on February 9.

Defense has been a big part of Morehead State’s hot streak. In their 11-1 run, the Eagles have allowed fewer than 65 points nine times, including each of the five games since the loss in Little Rock.

If you love to bet on Morehead State unders, that would be good news for you. In this 12-game stretch, the under is 8-3-1.

Morehead State’s hot streak has also been good for spread bettors. They have a 10-2-0 ATS record in their last 12 games, and they have covered in every game of their current five-game win streak.

The first game of that streak was a 65-59 win at Southeast Missouri State on February 11, in which the Redhawks were held to a season low in points.

Such low-scoring games have been a rarity for SEMO. The over is 15-5-0 in their OVC games this season, including both of their conference tournament wins over Lindenwood and Tennessee State. And in six games since the loss to Morehead State, the Redhawks have scored at least 78 points in each game.

Southeast Missouri State vs Morehead State Prediction and Picks

Redhawks vs Eagles Prediction: Morehead State to win

Redhawks vs Eagles Pick: Morehead State -3.5 (BetOnline) & Southeast Missouri State/Morehead State under 141.5 (Best Value: BetOnline & BetUS)

Only ten of Morehead State’s Division I games have finished with 140 or more points, and the last four games they’ve had that have closed at 139.5 or higher have all gone under.

So, I’m much more inclined to favor the under here, and I also like the Eagles to cover as they advance to tomorrow’s championship clash.

Is it better to be the team that hasn’t played since Saturday or the team that is playing its third game in three days? There’s an argument for either side, but I’m just rolling with the better team here.