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San Diego State vs Alabama Basketball Prediction & Picks: Best Bets for Aztecs vs Crimson Tide

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Will SDSU reach uncharted territory tonight, or will Alabama go where they have gone only once before? The first South Regional semifinal sees fifth-seeded SDSU take on the tournament’s #1 overall seed at the KFC Yum! Center in Louisville, Kentucky (6:30 pm ET, TBS).

The Aztecs (29-6) are looking to reach the Elite Eight for the first time in program history, while the Crimson Tide (31-5) are looking to advance to a regional final for just the second time, with their previous appearance coming in 2004.

Who will move on to face either Xavier or Texas on Sunday? Read on for our San Diego State vs Alabama prediction and picks.

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SDSU vs Alabama Odds

Odds are via BetOnline as of Friday, March 24, 2023.

Spread

San Diego State +7.5 (-112)
Alabama -7.5 (-108)

Over/Under

Over 137.5 (-110)
Under 137.5 (-110)

Moneyline

San Diego State +260
Alabama -330

Can SDSU Lean on Defense to Deny Alabama?

Lamont Butler SDSU basketball Furman March Madness

A big reason that the Aztecs swept the Mountain West regular season and tournament titles, have won 29 games, and are in the Sweet Sixteen for the first time since 2014 is unlocking a new level on offense.

Last year, San Diego State ranked 167th in adjusted offensive efficiency at KenPom. This year, they rank 71st. And in their second-round win over Furman, the Aztecs hit the 75-point mark for the 12th time this season, five more times than they did last season.

But defense is still very much a key part of SDSU’s gameplan, as evidenced by the fact that they rank sixth in adjusted defensive efficiency. Of the teams still in the tournament after Thursday night’s action, only Alabama (third) and Houston (fourth) rank higher.

As the season has progressed, SDSU has leaned more and more on their defense, and that has reflected in over/under results.

In their first 21 games against Division I opposition this season, the over was 13-8-0. But the under is 12-1-0 in their last 13 games and has hit in ten straight games entering tonight’s contest.

In those first 21 games against Division I opposition, the Aztecs allowed fewer than 65 points only eight times. But in their last 13 games, they have allowed fewer than 65 points ten times, and they haven’t allowed more than 61 in their last six games.

Can they keep this up against a team that has been held below 70 points only six times this season?

Here are the defensive efficiency rankings for those six teams:

South Alabama: 84th (2nd in the Sun Belt)
UConn: 13th
Mississippi State: 9th
Oklahoma: 47th
Tennessee: 1st
Texas A&M: 44th

So, it certainly can be done. If SDSU can manage to even hold them under 75 points–which has been done only ten times this season–that bodes well for the under, which is 8-2-0 when Alabama has been held under 75 points this season.

SDSU vs Alabama Prediction and Picks

Prediction for San Diego State vs Alabama: Alabama to win

Pick for San Diego State vs Alabama: SDSU/Alabama under 137.5 & SDSU +7.5 (Best Value: Bovada Sportsbook & BetMGM)

I don’t think San Diego State is going to want to get into a game where they have to score 75 or more points to win, but will they be able to limit the Crimson Tide?

It should be noted that Alabama shot only 39.7% (23 of 58) from the field against Maryland, including 28.6% (6 of 21) from three. And the Terps aren’t on the same level defensively as SDSU is.

Whether or not the Aztecs can generate enough offense to pull the upset remains to be seen, but I look for this one to go under and fall in line with the percentages for the tournament (36-20-0 in favor of unders), which took a little dent with three of last night’s four games going over.

Where to Bet on San Diego State vs Alabama

Here are four legal sports betting sites that we highly recommend and have reviewed, where you can bet on this year’s NCAA men’s and women’s tournaments, as well as the 2023 NIT.