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Saturday College Basketball Best Bets | January 11, 2024
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Updated:
Read Time: 6 minutes
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Best bets this Saturday feature two teams in desperate need of a win. Arkansas looks to bounce back at home against Florida, relying on their strong defense to break a two-game losing streak. Meanwhile, Cincinnati hosts No. 11 Kansas, with the Bearcats hoping to capitalize on the Jayhawks’ travel-heavy schedule and secure a much-needed victory.
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#8 Florida vs Arkansas Best Bet
How will Arkansas handle #8 Florida after two straight losses?
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The Razorbacks are in dire need of a victory, coming off back-to-back losses in conference play to No. 1 Tennessee and No. 23 Ole Miss. Meanwhile, Florida is coming off a big win, having defeated Tennessee and handing the Volunteers their first loss of the season. Could this be the right time to bet against the Gators? I believe so. Head coach John Calipari and his team are in need of a bounce-back performance, and what better place to do it than in their home gym?
At home this season, Arkansas boasts an impressive defense, ranked 20th in adjusted defensive efficiency. This defensive unit excels at forcing turnovers and grabbing rebounds. They limit free throw opportunities for their opponents, ranked 61st in free throw rate defense. Additionally, they are strong on the perimeter, ranked 34th in three-point defense. According to Haslametrics, the Razorbacks also have a significant edge in consistency, as Florida ranks 14th worst in that category.
Florida has an outstanding team, excelling in both offense and defense. They are a top-five offense and a top-50 defense, making them a well-rounded team. However, this feels like a spot where they might stumble—perhaps not lose outright, but fail to cover. Coach Cal and the Razorbacks are desperate, with their backs against the wall. Expect them to bring intensity when facing one of the most efficient inside shooting teams in the country.
This game is likely to come down to the turnover battle. Arkansas is ranked 70th in offensive turnover percentage against top 100 teams. Meanwhile, Florida ranks 272nd in defensive turnover percentage. Whichever team can force the other to make more mistakes should come out on top.
I took the Arkansas line as soon as it opened at plus five and a half. I am uncertain of the line movement, but I believe five and a half is a great number for a home underdog in desperate need of a win. Hopefully, Coach Cal has his team ready to face a very strong Gators squad.
Best Bet: Arkansas (+5.5) on BetOnline
#11 Kansas vs Cincinnati Best Bet
Can Cincinnati snap their losing streak against #11 Kansas this Saturday?
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Another team in desperate need of a win is the Cincinnati Bearcats. After nearly completing a 19-point comeback against Arizona last Saturday at home, they were unable to close out the victory. They followed that up with a complete blowout loss to the Baylor Bears on Tuesday. Currently on a three-game losing streak, they are in dire need of a win. On Saturday afternoon, they host No. 11 Kansas, a team that has been dominating their opponents. The Jayhawks come off a 99-48 win over UCF on the road and a 74-55 victory over Arizona State at home this past Wednesday.
Now, Kansas faces the 43rd-ranked team at home, according to Haslametrics, as short underdogs, depending on the book. Who will come out on top? I lean towards the Bearcats in this spot. After three tough losses, a win seems inevitable, in theory. At home this season, Cincinnati ranks 21st in defensive efficiency, with a top-10 effective field goal percentage defense. They are among the best in the nation at guarding both the perimeter and the inside. The team’s biggest weakness is free throw shooting, ranking 19th worst in the country. Despite this, in their eight home games, they maintain a top-55 two-point shooting percentage and are the 21st-best offensive rebounding team. These numbers hold up against top-100 teams as well, as they are 3-4 in seven games against top-100 schools, with wins over Georgia Tech, Xavier, and Dayton. Their losses came against Villanova, Kansas State, Arizona, and Baylor.
Kansas has also secured its share of big wins this season, with a 5-3 record against top-100 schools. This is a much stronger Kansas team than last year, but despite bouncing back from their December 31st loss to West Virginia, this seems like a great opportunity for the Bearcats to get back on track with a big win. Additionally, with the Jayhawks having traveled to UCF on Sunday, returning home to host Arizona State on Wednesday, and now traveling to Cincinnati, the toll of all that travel in less than a week could be a factor.
I’m taking the Bearcats and the points. My advice: wait. Let the line move. If people jump on Kansas, you might be able to grab Cincinnati at around +2.5 or +3.5.
Best Bet: Cincinnati (+1) on BetOnline
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd who spends his free time on Bart Torvik, Ken Pom and Batters-Box.com. He has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog, he loves them all.
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