San Francisco vs Boise State Prediction & Picks: Do the Dons Have a Chance to Pull the Upset?

With a mix of returning talent and new faces, Boise State is expected to make a run at a third straight NCAA Tournament trip. To boost those chances, the Broncos have a tough non-conference schedule, which includes this afternoon’s matchup with San Francisco.

The Broncos’ non-conference slate will see them travel to Clemson, play in the ESPN Events Invitational, and also face Saint Mary’s, North Texas (last season’s NIT champions), and Washington State. If they can make it to Mountain West play with only a loss or two, they will be in a strong position to land on the right side of the March Madness bubble.

The Broncos lost star guard Marcus Shaver Jr. and forward Naje Smith, but they were picked second behind San Diego State in the Mountain West preseason poll and received four of the six first-place votes that weren’t given to the Aztecs.

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That says a lot about Boise State’s potential, even with a big loss like Shaver. Three of their top five scorers (Tyson Degenhart, Max Rice, and Chibuzo Agbo) are back, and power conference transfers O’Mar Stanley (St. John’s) and Cam Martin (Kansas) look set to be impact players.

Potential is high for San Francisco as well. They aren’t expected to be an NCAA Tournament team, but the Dons were picked to be the WCC’s best team not named Saint Mary’s or Gonzaga.

How high is their ceiling? Today’s game in Boise could perhaps provide a good indication of what the Dons can be this college basketball season, armed with some talented transfers and a couple of experienced returnees in Marcus Williams and Isaiah Hawthorne.

San Francisco vs Boise State Odds

Odds are courtesy of Bovada.

Spread

• San Francisco +6 (-110)
• Boise State -6 (-110)

Over/Under

• Over 143 (-110)
• Under 143 (-110)

Moneyline

• San Francisco +215
• Boise State -260

San Francisco vs Boise State Prediction and Picks

Prediction: Boise State to win

Picks: San Francisco/Boise State over 143 (-110 at Bovada)

Boise State has finished 20th and 28th in defensive efficiency each of the last two seasons, and strong defensive play will likely be a key part of their continued success this season.

But they are a strong offensive squad as well, and returnees Degenhart (14.1 PPG), Rice (14.0 PPG), and Ago (11.5 PPG) all averaged double figures last season.

Degenhart missed Tuesday’s season-opening rout of Vanguard University (an NAIA school) after suffering a broken nose in practice. But given that he was considered a game-time decision for that matchup, we should see him on the court this afternoon.

San Francisco lost the three players who each averaged 10+ PPG for the Dons last season, including Zane Meeks, who transferred to Arizona State.

That would lead to diminished expectations for a lot of teams, but second-year coach Chris Gerlufsen beefed up his roster for this year with some impact additions in Jonathan Mogbo (Missouri State), Stefan Todorovic (SMU), Malik Thomas (USC), and Mike Sharavjamts (Dayton).

I think the Dons can and will make this one interesting, but I also think the Broncos will be able to come away with the win and the cover in the end. Hopefully it won’t require as much drama as last night’s Utah State-Bradley game, which needed overtime for the cover and the over.