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San Diego State vs UConn Prediction and Picks: Best Spread and Over/Under Bets for Monday’s Men’s Title Game

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San Diego State vs UConn Prediction and Picks: Best Spread and Over/Under Bets for Monday’s Men’s Title Game cover

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Will San Diego State end a historic season with the program’s first national championship? Or will UConn make it four consecutive decades with a title? We’ll find out on Monday night when the Aztecs and Huskies meet at NRG Stadium in Houston (9:20 pm ET, CBS).

This year’s NCAA Tournament had already seen SDSU (32-6) reach the Elite Eight and Final Four for the first time. But with Lamont Butler’s buzzer beater last night against FAU, the Aztecs checked off another first and are now 40 minutes away from checking off the last one on the list.

NCAA Tournament 2023 Most Outstanding Player Odds & History

While San Diego State needed some last-second heroics to cap off a comeback from 14 down, UConn (30-8) needed no such drama to send Miami packing. Instead, the Huskies recorded their fifth straight double-digit win of the tournament to set up the program’s first title game appearance since 2014.

Who will cut down the nets on Monday night in Houston, and how should you bet the championship contest? Read on for our San Diego State vs UConn prediction, as well as our spread and over/under picks for the matchup between the Aztecs and Huskies.

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San Diego State vs UConn Odds

Odds are via BetOnline as of Monday, April 3, 2023.

Spread

San Diego State +7.5 (-112)
UConn -7.5 (-108)

Over/Under

Over 132.5 (-110)
Under 132.5 (-110)

Moneyline

San Diego State +290
UConn -375

Can San Diego State End UConn’s Double-Digit Dominance?

Lamont Butler San Diego State Final Four buzzer beater FAU

The Aztecs have won quite a few games over the years while scoring 65 or fewer points, but will they need more than that to take home the title?

This season, San Diego State has gone just 5-6-0 ATS when scoring 65 or fewer points. But the Aztecs are also 9-2-0 SU in that scenario and have also covered each of the last four instances, including in the Elite Eight against Creighton.

The Aztecs didn’t have their best defensive performance against FAU, who shot 40.9% (9 of 22) from three and 44.2% (23 of 52) overall. But they were able to come back from 14 down by making some timely defensive stops, including one on FAU’s final possession to set up Butler’s game winner.

A much better effort is needed against UConn, who has scored 70+ points 31 times in 38 games this season, including 10 times in their last 11 games. The Huskies are 26-4 SU and 23-6-1 ATS when scoring 70+ points this season, but they are just 4-4 SU and 3-5-0 ATS when failing to hit the 70-point mark.

They will also need to have some success on the offensive end, where the hot Hurricanes became the latest team to be stymied by UConn.

Going into last night’s semifinal showdown, Miami had scored 85, 89, and 88 points in their previous three games.

But in their 72-59 loss to the Huskies, the Hurricanes were held below 60 points for the first time all season.

They shot only 32.3% (20 of 62) from the field overall and 35% (7 of 20) from three, and Jordan Miller, Nijel Pack, and Isaiah Wong combined for only 34 points after combining for 58 against Indiana, 59 against Houston, and 56 against Texas.

Defensive Numbers for UConn in the NCAA Tournament

Points allowed per game: 59.2
FG%: 34.7% (101 of 291)
3PT%: 29.1% (25 of 86)

Last night’s showing continued a string of strong defensive performances for the Huskies, who has yet to allow a team to shoot 40% or better in the NCAA Tournament.

Since Iona made 7 of 16 (43.8%) from three against UConn in the first round, the next four opponents have gone only 18 of 70 (25.7%) from outside. Additionally, none of the Huskies’ tournament opponents have scored more than 65 points.

As a result, we have seen UConn win five straight games by double digits, and they are heavily favored to see off San Diego State

San Diego State vs UConn Prediction and Picks

Prediction for San Diego State vs UConn: UConn to win

Picks for San Diego State vs UConn: San Diego State to cover (Best Value: +8 @ BetUS) & San Diego State/UConn over (Best Value: over 131 @ at BetUS)

There’s a lot to like about what San Diego State has shown in the NCAA Tournament and throughout this unforgettable season for the program.

However, I don’t think UConn will be denied on Monday night. I don’t see them blowing away the Aztecs like they have other teams during March Madness, and that is reflected in my betting recommendations.

But when the final seconds of the final college basketball game of the season run out, it will be the Huskies celebrating the program’s fifth national title.

Where to Bet on San Diego State vs UConn

Here are four legal sports betting sites that we highly recommend and have reviewed, where you can bet on this year’s NCAA men’s and women’s tournaments, as well as the 2023 NIT.