San Diego State vs New Mexico Basketball Prediction & Picks (1/13): Bet on the Aztecs to Bag the Road Win

There’s been a lot of carnage early on in Mountain West Conference play, but San Diego State has been blemish-free thus far. Will that continue for the #19 Aztecs? Coming away from today’s road game with New Mexico (2:00 pm ET, CBS) with a win will be one of their more impressive results of the season.

The Lobos (13-3, 1-2 Mountain West) are looking to avoid a third conference loss in their first four games, as they have road losses against Colorado State and UNLV sandwiched around a 17-point win over Wyoming.

The Aztecs (14-2, 3-0 Mountain West) are one of three teams to enter today still unbeaten in Mountain West play, along with #20 Utah State (15-1, 3-0) and Boise State (12-4, 3-0), who went into Reno last night and made some major noise by knocking off Nevada (15-2, 2-1).

While San Diego State is the ranked team, has won seven straight games, and own a road win over Gonzaga, New Mexico is favored to come out on top at The Pit, where they are 8-0 SU this season. Will they back up those odds? Read on for our breakdown of this mouthwatering Mountain West matchup.

San Diego State vs New Mexico Odds

Odds are courtesy of Bovada. If you’re interested in trying them out, we recommend checking out our Bovada review.

Spread

• San Diego State +3.5 (-105)
• New Mexico -3.5 (-115)

Over/Under

• Over 150.5 (-110)
• Under 150.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• San Diego State +145
• New Mexico -170

Last Five Games for San Diego State

• San Jose State (1/9 – away): won 83-73
• UNLV (1/6 – home): won 72-61
• Fresno State (1/3 – home): won 74-47
• Gonzaga (12/29 – away): won 84-74
• Stanford (12/21 – home): won 74-60

Last Five Games for New Mexico

• UNLV (1/9 – away): lost 83-73
• Wyoming (1/6 – home): won 77-60
• Colorado State (1/2 – away): lost 76-68
• Eastern New Mexico (12/29 – home): won 87-54
• UC Irvine (12/20 – home): won 78-65

Players to Watch for San Diego State

• Jaedon LeDee: 22.0 PPG, 8.8 RPG, 1.5 APG, 57.4% FG, 40.0% 3PT
• Reese Waters: 12.3 PPG, 3.7 RPG, 1.5 APG, 42.1% 3PT
• Micah Parrish: 10.6 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 2.1 APG, 1.6 SPG
• Lamont Butler: 8.4 PPG, 1.8 RPG, 3.3 APG, 1.2 SPG
• Darrion Trammell: 7.5 PPG, 1.9 RPG, 2.2 APG

Players to Watch for New Mexico

• Jamal Mashburn Jr.: 16.2 PPG, 2.0 RPG, 1.3 APG
• Donovan Dent: 15.7 PPG, 2.8 RPG, 6.1 APG, 1.7 SPG, 51.1% FG
• Jaelen House: 14.7 PPG, 3.1 RPG, 4.0 APG, 2.6 SPG
• JT Toppin: 12.5 PPG, 7.6 RPG, 1.3 SPG, 1.5 BPG, 67.2% FG
• Nelly Junior Joseph: 8.8 PPG, 7.8 RPG, 1.3 APG, 1.3 SPG, 1.0 BPG, 50.5% FG

San Diego State vs New Mexico Prediction and Picks

Prediction: San Diego State to win

What do we make of New Mexico? The Lobos are perfect at home this season, but their best home win is over UC Irvine, who is 71^st in the NET and 72^nd at KenPom. Also, they have lost their three toughest games this season, losing at Colorado State (#23 NET/#28 KenPom), Saint Mary’s (#38 NET/#46 KenPom), and UNLV (#98 NET/#86 KenPom).

There’s still a high level of potential with the Lobos, but it is tied to the performances of Mashburn and House.

Mashburn is averaging only 12.7 PPG in his first three conference games and is shooting just 35.3% this season, which is a pretty disappointing return when he shot 42.8% each of the previous two seasons.

House was 7 of 11 from the field in Tuesday’s loss to UNLV, but he is still shooting only 37.7% this season after connecting at a clip of 43.4% last season.

Will these two big-time talents show up in a big-time moment for UNM? It’s a tough ask even if the Aztecs are coming off of one of their poorer defensive results of the season.

San Diego State got all they could handle at San Jose State on Tuesday night but escaped with a three-point win over the Spartans.

SJSU shot 42.6% from the field, the fourth-best shooting percentage against SDSU this season. Also, the Spartans shot 33.3% from three, which represents a good return when SDSU’s previous four opponents had connected on only 23.8% of their triples.

Another challenge is ahead for the Aztecs in Albuquerque, but most of their core was part of the team that won at The Pit last season. As such, they won’t be at all overawed by the venue or the task at hand, especially after taking down Gonzaga in Spokane last month.

San Diego State vs New Mexico Spread & Over/Under Betting Picks

All picks listed below are courtesy of Bovada unless otherwise noted. Bet these plays there and get a 75% WELCOME BONUS if your first deposit is via cryptocurrency (e.g., Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin)

San Diego State +3.5 & San Diego State/New Mexico over 151

The over is 6-2 in San Diego State’s road and neutral-site games this season, with the coming at BYU (under 148.5) and UC San Diego (under 139.5).

If the total doesn’t drop below 150, it will be the first 150+ total for an SDSU game since their Maui Invitational semifinal against Arizona last season and only the third since the start of the 2019-20 season.

Both of their last couple of 150+ totals have gone under, but I anticipate a different result in this matchup.

This could be their first 150+ total of the season, but totals of 140+ this season have gone over five of seven times, including three of four 145+ totals.

Looking to learn more about the ins and outs of betting on NCAA basketball? Check out our college basketball betting guide.