Purdue vs Indiana Basketball Prediction & Picks: Will the top-ranked Boilermakers hold off the Hoosiers?

There are a number of big games on today’s college basketball schedule, but arguably the biggest one sees #1 Purdue travel to Bloomington to face #21 Indiana (4:00 pm ET, ESPN).

The Boilermakers (22-1, 11-1 Big Ten) have won nine straight games and go into today’s game at Assembly Hall with a three and a half game lead over Illinois and Rutgers atop the conference standings.

Behind the top three of Purdue, Illinois, and Rutgers is a group of six teams sitting at 6-5, and that group includes Indiana (15-7, 6-5 Big Ten), who saw a five-game win streak end with a loss at Maryland.

It was a disappointing loss for the Hoosiers, but with a rivalry win over the nation’s top-ranked team, their NCAA Tournament resume will have a signature win on it.

Will they get it? Read on for our Purdue vs Indiana basketball prediction, as well as our picks for this afternoon’s matchup in Bloomington.

Purdue vs Indiana Odds

Odds are via BetOnline as of Saturday, February 4, 2023, at 11:28 am ET. This article may also include odds from our other recommended legal sports betting sites.

Spread

• Purdue +1.5 (-122)
• Indiana -1.5 (+100)

Over/Under

• Over 139.5 (-105)
• Under 139.5 (-115)

Moneyline

• Purdue -111
• Indiana -108

Can Purdue Survive Another Close Call on the Road?

The Boilermakers have flexed their muscles on opposition quite a few times this season, including in each of their last two games, a 16-point home win over Michigan State last Sunday and a 20-point home win over Penn State on Wednesday.

But they have also won their share of close games as well, mostly on the road. In Big Ten play, Purdue has won four games by five or fewer points, with the most recent being a 75-70 win at Michigan on January 26.

That experience is likely to come in handy in Bloomington, as the Hoosiers have been at their best at home. In Big Ten play, they have dropped four of six games on the road, but they are 4-1 at home.

Other than a 63-45 win over Wisconsin, offense has led the way for Indiana in their home wins.

Offensive Results for Indiana at Home in Big Ten Play

• Nebraska (won 81-65): 32 of 60 FG (53.3%), 11 of 25 3PT (44.0%), 6 of 8 FT (75%)
• Northwestern (lost 84-83): 32 of 62 FG (51.6%), 9 of 18 3PT (50%), 10 of 14 FT (71.4%)
• Wisconsin (won 63-45): 29 of 62 FG (46.8%), 1 of 8 3PT (12.5%), 4 of 5 FT (80%)
• Michigan State (won 82-69): 26 of 55 FG (47.3%), 9 of 15 3PT (60%), 21 of 24 FT (87.5%)
• Ohio State (won 86-70): 32 of 64 FG (50%), 10 of 20 3PT (50%), 12 of 17 FT (70.6%)

However, none of those teams is as adept defensively as Purdue is, who has allowed 70 points only three times this season, to Marquette (75-70 win), Minnesota (89-70 win), and Michigan (75-70 win).

Purdue vs Indiana Prediction and Picks

Boilermakers vs Hoosiers Prediction: Purdue to win

Boilermakers vs Hoosiers Picks: Purdue ML (Best Value: BetMGM) & Zach Edey total points over (Best Value: over 20.5 @ Bovada Sportsbook)

Often enough in these matchups, I will back the home team, so this is going against my usual habits. But there aren’t going to be a lot of instances from here on that you will get such good value with Purdue, and I’m happy to prioritize taking advantage of that rare opportunity over going with my usual habits.

As has been the case with many of Purdue’s wins this season, this one will come with a big performance by Zach Edey. Edey, the runaway favorite for the Wooden Award, had 18 points and 13 rebounds last time out against Penn State.

Based on that points total, the over for his points total is the way to go to today. The last four times he scored fewer than 20 points, he scored 30, 32, 24, and 38 points next time out.