Purdue vs Maryland Basketball Prediction & Picks: Can the Boilermakers avoid a third straight road loss?

After consecutive road losses, #3 Purdue will look to avoid a third straight road loss tonight as they visit Maryland (6:30 pm ET, BTN).

The Boilermakers (23-3, 12-3 Big Ten) dropped out of the top spot in the national rankings after losing at Northwestern on Sunday, but they continue to hold a healthy lead atop the Big Ten standings.

Entering tonight, Purdue is two and a half games up on Northwestern (18-7, 9-5 Big Ten) and Indiana (18-7, 9-5 Big Ten), the two teams that have dealt the Boilermakers their recent road losses.

The Wildcats and Hoosiers have the inside track on top-four seeds in the Big Ten tourney, but they are also part of a nine-team group that is separated by just two and a half games.

That group includes Maryland (17-8, 8-6 Big Ten), who would boost their hopes of a top-four finish and improve their NCAA Tournament seeding situation with a win tonight.

Will the Terps pull off the upset tonight, or will the Boilermakers leave College Park with a win? Read on for our Purdue vs Maryland prediction and picks.

Purdue vs Maryland Odds

Odds are via BetOnline as of Thursday, February 16, 2023, at 2:25 pm ET. This article may also include odds from our other recommended legal sports betting sites.

Spread

• Purdue -1.5 (-106)
• Maryland +1.5 (-114)

Over/Under

• Over 131.5 (-115)
• Under 131.5 (-105)

Moneyline

• Purdue -120
• Maryland +100

Can Maryland Lean on Defense to Push Purdue Again?

Sunday’s 64-58 loss at Northwestern was stunning for multiple reasons. The Wildcats came back to win after trailing 55-47 with under four minutes left, and they managed to become just the second team to hold Purdue to under 60 points this season.

Who is the other team? That would be Maryland, who also held the Boilermakers to just 58 points in a three-point Purdue win on January 22.

In that matchup in West Lafayette, Purdue shot just 38.5% (20 of 52) overall from the field, including just 2 of 13 (15.4%) from three. The total of triples tied a season low for the Boilermakers, who also made just two threes in a win over Austin Peay in their second game of the season.

Unfortunately, while things could not have gone much better on the defensive end for Maryland in that game, they couldn’t have gone much worse offensively for most of it, and they trailed by 14 at halftime and by 16 at one point.

But the Terps allowed just one field goal in the final 10:12 of the game, which enabled them to pull closer and give themselves several chances to potentially tie the game down the stretch.

So, there is a blueprint for a big upset bid, and it doesn’t involve necessarily slowing down Zach Edey, who was 10 of 17 from the field and had 24 points and 16 rebounds in the first meeting.

Instead, it involves minimizing what everyone else can do. In that first matchup, the rest of Edey’s teammates were just 10 of 35 (28.6%) from the field and contributed just 34 points.

Similar results occurred in Sunday’s game in Evanston, as Edey was 7 of 10 from the field and recorded 24 points (and eight rebounds), but the rest of his teammates were just 10 of 37 (27.0%) and scored 34 points.

Purdue vs Maryland Prediction and Picks

Boilermakers vs Terrapins Prediction: Maryland to win

Boilermakers vs Terrapins Picks: Maryland ML (Best Value: Bovada Sportsbook) & Purdue team total under 66.5 (Best Value: Bovada Sportsbook)

Purdue’s last couple of road trips have shown that they are most certainly beatable, but Maryland will already know that from how closely they played them in West Lafayette without even bringing anywhere near their best on the offensive end.

Can the Terps produce a similar defensive effort tonight to give themselves a chance to go a step further than they did in the first meeting?

Well, it is encouraging that Maryland has allowed fewer than 70 points in 11 of their 14 Big Ten games, including each of their last eight. In that eight-game stretch, they are 6-2 with losses at Purdue and at Michigan State, and they are a perfect 5-0 at home.

As I said about last night’s Alabama vs Tennessee matchup, winning on the road is difficult. The best teams in college basketball this season all have at least one major flaw, and the right opponent can expose and exploit those flaws.

Just like Tennessee did that to Alabama last night in taking down the #1 Crimson Tide in Knoxville, I think Maryland will do the same to Purdue tonight and take the step that they didn’t the first time around.