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Pittsburgh vs Miami Basketball Prediction, Odds & Picks

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The top seed in next week’s ACC Tournament will be decided today in south Florida as #16 Miami hosts #25 Pittsburgh (6:00 pm ET, ACC Network).

With a win over Louisville this afternoon, Virginia (22-6, 14-5 ACC) will clinch a share of the ACC regular season title.

But because both teams own a head-to-head tiebreaker advantage over the Cavaliers, the winner of the matchup between the Panthers (21-9, 14-5 ACC) and Hurricanes (23-6, 14-5 ACC) will be the #1 seed in Greensboro, North Carolina next week.

Who will take the top seed? Read on for our Pittsburgh vs Miami basketball prediction, as well as our picks and analysis for this evening’s matchup at the Watsco Center.

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Pittsburgh vs Miami Odds

Odds for Pittsburgh vs Miami are via BetOnline as of Saturday, March 4, 2023.

Spread

Pittsburgh +7.5 (-110)
Miami -7.5 (-110)

Over/Under

Over 154.5 (-110)
Under 154.5 (-110)

Moneyline

Pittsburgh +255
Miami -320

Will There Be Points and a Party in Miami?

When Miami was last on the court this past Saturday, they were on the wrong end of one of the most stunning upsets of this college basketball season.

With 19:49 left against eight-win Florida State, the Hurricanes held a 25-point lead. It looked like they were well on their way to a dominant home win over the Seminoles, but the visitors rallied and won on Matthew Cleveland’s buzzer-beating three.

It was Miami’s first home loss of the season after 15 straight wins, and it was just the third time that the Hurricanes failed to cover at home in ACC play.

So, there’s reason for Miami bettors to feel confident that the Hurricanes will take care of business against Pittsburgh, who has dropped consecutive road games against Virginia Tech and Notre Dame after starting 6-1 on the road in ACC play.

Over bettors should also fancy their chances in this matchup. In the Panthers’ first six road games in ACC play, the over hit only twice. But it has hit in each of their last three games, with 158 combined points at FSU, followed by 151 at Virginia Tech and 169 at Notre Dame.

Also, overs have been a regular feature of Miami’s home games in ACC play. Six of Miami’s nine home conference games have gone over, and 150+ combined points have been scored in all but their wins over Virginia and Duke, who are the top two defensive teams in the ACC.

Pittsburgh vs Miami Prediction and Picks

Panthers vs Hurricanes Prediction: Miami to win

Panthers vs Hurricanes Picks: Miami team total over 81.5 (Best Value: BetUS) & Pittsburgh/Miami over 154.5

Only one of Pittsburgh’s five ACC losses has been by eight or more points, a 77-69 loss at Duke on January 11. While I like Miami to win, I don’t love the spread at this number. I think the Panthers can keep it competitive throughout, and this is a lot of points to navigate to cover.

Instead, my preference is to back the over for the game and the over for Miami’s team total. The Hurricanes have scored 82 or more points six times at home in ACC play, and in two of the three games they didn’t, they scored 80 and 81.