New Mexico vs Utah State Basketball Prediction & Picks: Will the Lobos & Aggies light up the scoreboard in Logan?

The two highest-scoring teams in the Mountain West will face off tonight in an important game for both teams as Utah State (17-5, 6-3 Mountain West) welcomes New Mexico (19-3, 6-3 Mountain West) to Logan, Utah for a nationally televised matchup (10:30 pm ET/8:30 pm MT, FS1).

Both teams enter the second half of Mountain West play with some hope of winning the regular season title, though they find themselves behind Boise State (18-5, 8-2), San Diego State (17-5, 8-2), and Nevada (17-6, 7-3) in the conference standings for now.

The regular season title is of secondary importance to the NCAA Tournament, however, and of the five Mountain West members in the running, the Lobos, Broncos, and Aztecs are all on the right side of the bubble at the moment, while the Wolf Pack and Aggies are not, according to ESPN’s latest Bracketology update.

So, tonight is a big, big game for the conference’s potential to be a four or even five-bid league this season.

Will the Aggies boost their hopes of returning to the Big Dance after missing out last season? Read on for our New Mexico vs Utah State basketball prediction and picks.

New Mexico vs Utah State Odds

Odds are via BetUS as of Wednesday, February 1, 2023, at 5:52 pm ET. This article may also include odds from our other recommended legal sports betting sites.

Spread

• New Mexico +4.5 (-110
• Utah State -4.5 (-110)

Over/Under

• Over 156.5 (-109)
• Under 156.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• New Mexico +163
• Utah State -200

Can New Mexico Stifle Utah State’s Shooters?

Entering today, New Mexico is first in the Mountain West and 15th in Division I in scoring at 82.4 points per game. Right behind them in the conference rankings is Utah State, who is tied for 26th nationally in scoring at 79.9 PPG.

The Lobos and Aggies both rank among the nation’s leaders in field goal percentage, with UNM (49.1%) ranking 11th and USU (48.6%) ranking 18th.

However, they differ greatly in one area.

While Utah State is first nationally in three-point percentage (41.8%) and 12th in made three-pointers per game (10.0), New Mexico is 328th in the country in made threes per game (5.8) and 349th in three-point attempts per game (16.5).

Perimeter shooting wasn’t such a strength in the Aggies’ games last week though. In their 85-75 loss at San Diego State, Utah State shot only 33.3% (11 of 33) from outside, and they shot the same percentage in making 6 of 18 from three in a 70-53 win over Fresno State on Saturday.

While the Lobos are good for giving up some points on a regular season, perimeter defense actually happens to be a strength for the Lobos.

Entering tonight’s action, they rank third in the Mountain West and 35th nationally in three-point defense (30.1%).

Also, only four teams have managed to shoot 40% or better from three against UNM thus far this season: Jacksonville State (10 of 24, 41.7%), Northern Colorado (12 of 28, 42.9%), UTSA (10 of 23, 43.5%), and Wyoming (8 of 19, 42.1%).

New Mexico vs Utah State Prediction and Picks

UNM vs USU Prediction: New Mexico to win

UNM vs USU Picks: New Mexico +4.5 (Best Value: BetUS) & New Mexico team total over 75.5 (Best Value: Bovada Sportsbook)

While Utah State is 4-0 at home in conference play, they had a close shave at home against UNLV (75-71 win) and an even closer one against San Jose State (75-74 win).

New Mexico is better than both of those teams, and I like their chances of leaving Logan with a win if they score like they have in most games this season.

The Lobos have scored 75 or more points in 19 of 22 games this season, including all but one conference game thus far. And since a 77-67 loss at Fresno State on January 3, they have scored 75+ in seven straight games.

If UNM can score close to or above 80 tonight, Utah State will be in trouble. The Aggies won their first three games this season in which they allowed 75 or more points, but they have dropped the last five since.

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