#10 New Mexico vs #7 Marquette Prediction & Best Bets (South Region): Can the Lobos Lock Up Jones and the Golden Eagles?

In each of the past two years, Marquette’s season came to an end at the hands of a lower-seeded team. Today, they will attempt to avoid that fate for a third straight year as they take on New Mexico to open South Region action at Rocket Arena in Cleveland (7:25 pm ET, TBS).

In 2023, the second-seeded Golden Eagles went down to seventh-seeded Michigan State in the second round. Last year, they fell again as a #2 seed, this time to #11 seed NC State in the Sweet Sixteen.

This year, they aren’t such a high seed in the March Madness bracket after losing seven of 12 following an 18-3 start. But they are favored to advance past the Lobos and set up a potential second-round matchup with second-seeded Michigan State on Sunday.

New Mexico (26-7) won the Mountain West regular season title for the first time since 2013 and is making consecutive NCAA Tournament appearances for only the fourth time in program history, and UNM is looking to reach the second round for the first time since 2012, when they defeated Long Beach State in the first round before losing to Louisville in the second round.

Both of these teams are led by high-scoring veteran guards. Will Kam Jones lead the Golden Eagles to the win, or will Donovan Dent drive the Lobos to the next round?

New Mexico vs Marquette Betting Trends

• Marquette is 2-1 SU but 0-3 ATS this season when favored by five or fewer points.
• Overall, Marquette is 22-3 SU and 13-12 ATS as a favorite this season.
• New Mexico is 3-3 SU and ATS as an underdog this season. All three wins are over NCAA Tournament teams: UCLA (neutral site), Colorado State (away), and Utah State (away).
• The over is 12-9 this season in New Mexico games with a total of 150+.
• The under is 5-1 this season in Marquette games with a total of 150+.
• The under is 4-2 in Marquette’s last six games.
• The under is 4-1-1 in New Mexico’s last six games.

New Mexico vs Marquette Prediction & Best Bets

Marquette is 18-3 this season against teams who entered today outside of the top 40 at KenPom, losing only to Daytona on the road, Xavier at home, and Villanova on the road.

So, the outlook is favorable for the Golden Eagles, even if they finished the season on a downturn after being in position for a top-16 seed entering February.

New Mexico has had only three games against top-40 teams, but they are 2-1 with wins over UCLA (neutral) and VCU (home) and a loss to St. John’s (away).

It’s tough to get a good read on what the Golden Eagles may do in this game or in the tournament if they move on—they are 1-6 in their last seven games against top-50 opposition after starting 6-1 against such teams—but based on what they have, or rather have not, done since February 1, there’s a lot to like about New Mexico’s chances to win this one.

Kam Jones has had to do a lot of heavy lifting for Marquette to even be competitive recently, and that is a major concern when New Mexico has the defensive acumen to keep him bottled up or minimize the impact of him going off.

Take New Mexico to cover and toss a little extra on the ML.

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