NCAA Basketball Predictions, Odds & Best Bets: Hump Day Hoops (11/20)

There’s College Basketball on today, so let’s get into it! We are back for some more NCAA Basketball action today! As always, we will be diving into the College Hoops slate to find our best bets for today! We’ve got a decent sized slate, however it is a very long season, so we will continue to pick our spots carefully.

For all of our Expert NCAA Basketball Picks, check out our page here. But for now, let’s get right into it!

Listed below are my College Hoops best bets for today, but be sure to get all of my picks on my Twitter (@Shaggy_Bets)

NCAA Basketball Best Bets – November 20th, 2024

New Mexico State vs Dayton Predictions

Best Bet: NMSU/Dayton Under 142 (-110) BetOnline

The Flyers are 4-0 this season, but they’ve seen a couple close contests to Northwestern and Ball State. Tonight I see them slowing this ball game down and continuing to be efficient on offense against a bad New Mexico State team.

Defensively, Dayton is a dream come true. They play very slow, ranking 311th in pace, while also ranking 9th in Offensive Rebounds allowed and 54th in overall defensive efficiency. The Flyers shoot the three ball plenty, over 43% of the time but rank 291st in 3P%, sinking less than 28% of their shots from downtown. Now, let’s talk about the Aggies.

New Mexico State plats offense pretty slow as well, ranking 214th in pace. They are also undefeated going into this game, and their defense has been incredible. The Aggie currently rank 25th in eFG% Defense and 68th in 3P% Defense. I don’t see either team touching 70 in this game as I see a very low scoring affair. Give me DEFENSE in DAYTON.

Abilene Christian vs Kennesaw State Predictions

Best Bet: ACU/Kennesaw State Over 156.5 (-110)  BetOnline

This handicap is nearly opposite of the one you just read. These teams RUN. The hosting Owls rank 8th in the country in pace while Abilene Christian is still 124th. They’ve got no problem getting up and down the floor.

The Owls also LOVE the three ball and they shoot it well and often. Kennesaw State ranks 43rd in 3P Rate and 4th in 3P%, knocking down over 46% of their shots from deep, shooting them on nearly the same percentage of possessions. The Owls don’t leave points at the FT line, shooting over 82% as a team from the stripe. Defensively though, they cannot hold their own. They rank 333rd in adjusted defensive efficiency but make up for it by scoring over 84+ points per game.

As for the visiting Wildcats, they also shoot it incredibly well from deep, making 37% of their shots from deep ranking 84th in the nation. They get to the free throw line a ton, ranking 30th in FT Rate offensively, while also sending their opponent there over 53% of the time ranking 346th in FT Rate defensively. Point being, I see tons of threes, tons of free throws, and ultimately a ton of possessions for these two teams who don’t play much defense but know how to put the ball in the hoop.

Long Beach State vs Gonzaga Predictions

Best Bet: Gonzaga TT Over 92.5 (-115) BetOnline

The Zags score, and tonight they’ll be doing plenty of that. I actually booked this at 93.5 so you can get a better number than I did, but I don’t see it coming into play. Gonzaga should score triple digits again tonight. They’ve already done that twice this season, while also putting up 88 against ASU and 80 against a very slow, defensive San Diego State team. At home where they can control the pace, Gonzaga is going to put the ball in the basket.

They lead the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency, rank 13th in TO Rate and 49th in offensive rebounds. They shoot nearly 80% from the free throw line while producing over 71 possessions for game. Long Beach is fine with running.

They produce over 70 possessions per game as well, but do so while ranking 325th in eFG% Defense. They don’t defend the perimeter, don’t have the size to matchup with Gonzaga inside, and the only thing they have going for them is shooting over 77% from the charity stripe. Pace shouldn’t be a problem in this matchup, and I trust the Zags to stay efficient on offense against a bad Long Beach team.

Idaho State vs UCLA Predictions

Best Bet: Idaho State +24.5 (-105) BetOnline

This number keeps climbing, and I am going to wait as long as possible to get as many precious points for my Idaho State Bengals on the road tonight. Idaho State is coming off a very tough loss on the road against Cal State Fullerton, and they’ve competed against a couple very good power 5 schools so far this year.

Plain and simple, this number is way too big for the low amount of possessions that will happen in this ball game.

UCLA is slow. Painfully slow. They rank 343rd in pace this season, and they are much better defensively than offensively. They don’t like shooting from downtown, and shoot less than 26% from deep anyways. Now, they have been blowing out bad teams, but I think Idaho State has the fire in them to make this a ball game.

The Bengals limit offensive rebounds and sending their opponent to the free throw line, something UCLA thrives at. Idaho State also plays very slow, ranking 344th in pace. Defensively they are much better than they are on offense, much like the Bruins, and they’ve been playing very solid defense early in the season.

Basically we have two teams in the bottom 20 of pace, while also ranking in the Top 90 of eFG% Defense going head to head. This game screams under, but ultimately I think Idaho State is able to cover this rather large number. I am hoping this continues to climb, and will probably wait until tip off to book this, however if it does get bought back down I will snag +23 before it gets any lower.

But….. I do think we see +26 before the game begins.

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