#16 Mount St. Mary’s vs #16 American: Odds & Best Bets (3/19)

The night before the madness begins we still have two more spots to fill in the Round of 64. The Alabama State Hornets moved on to face Auburn, and North Carolina proved they deserved to be in the NCAA Tournament by destroying San Diego State. Tonight we have two more bubble teams playing for the final 11 seed as the Texas Longhorns take on the Xavier Musketeers, and also two conference champions going head to head for a shot at Duke. The Mount St. Mary’s Mountaineers take on the American Eagles tonight in Dayton.

Mount St. Mary’s surprised a lot of people by winning the MAAC Tournament as the 6 seed, beating the Top 3 seeds in their conference championship matchups. American was the 2 seed in the Patriot league, beating Lafayette, Colgate and Navy to clinch their spot. Who will walk away with a win tonight and advanced to face the Blue Devils in the Round of 64?

#16 Mount St. Mary’s Mountaineers vs American Eagles: First Four

Matchup Information – Mount St. Mary’s vs American

• Venue & Location: UD Arena (Dayton, OH)
• Date: Wednesday, March 19th, 2025
• Tip Off: 6:40pm Eastern
• Broadcast: truTV

Betting Odds

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Spread

• Mount St. Mary’s +2.5 (-110)
• American -2.5 (-110)

Money Line

• Mount St. Mary’s +120
• American -140

Total

• Over 129 (-115)
• Under 129 (-105)

Who Will Advance to the Round of 64?

You probably haven’t heard much about these two conference champions, so let’s talk some advanced analytics courtesy of Bart Torvik.

American Eagles – Patriot League Champion

• 243rd overall
• Adjusted Off/Def Efficiency: 268th/194th
• Effective FG% Off/Def: 119th/243rd
• OR Rate Off/Def: 335th/67th
• FT Rate: 288th
• FT%: 56th (75.9%)

This team is much better on the defense end, especially when it comes to rebounding. They are one of the slowest teams in the nation, and they don’t get very many points from second chance opportunities or the free throw line because they hardly get there. The Eagles defend the perimeter well and shoot plenty of threes offensively.

Mount St. Mary’s Mountaineers – MAAC Champion

• 264th overall
• Adjusted Off/Def Efficiency: 300th/196th
• Effective FG% Off/Def: 162nd/54th
• TO Rate Off/Def: 358th/270th
• OR Rate Def: 98th
• FT Rate Def: 35th

American doesn’t get any offensive boards or free throw attempts, and Mount St. Mary’s does a great job of already limiting these opportunities for their opponents. They will definitely try to pick up the pace in this matchup, which I think will be heavily defensive. Neither offense is good, we have a very low total for a reason, and I’ll be backing the underdog because of this.

Mount St. Mary’s Mountaineers vs American Eagles Best Bets

Mount St. Mary’s vs American Prediction: Mount St. Mary’s Wins Outright, Under 129.5

Best Bets: Mount St. Mary’s +2.5 (-110) BetOnline

Back the Mount with me tonight. This is going to be as much of a wake up call for American as facing the 264th ranked team can be. Let’s discuss.

American has played one team in the Top 275 in their past 10 games. They played Colgate twice, beating them both times. Sure, they’ve been playing good ball, but the only team they’ve played within the Top 250 lately is Bucknell twice, splitting with them. As my man, Colby Marchio would say… they’ve been cruising down easy street.

Now they face a MSM team that has kept their last four opponents under 60 points a piece. The eFG% defense is nearly Top 50 in the country, and they’ve played three teams ranked higher than 245 in their last four opponents overall. I get comparing the MAAC competition to that of the Patriot League is a stretch, but MSM has some big road wins this year, and has pulled out victories in crunch time. I see them being much more comfortable on a neutral site, and I think they can keep this game low scoring and pull off an upset win.

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