Montana vs Arkansas State Prediction & Best Bets: Will the Red Wolves Move On in Daytona?

Men’s March Madness action is on pause until the Sweet Sixteen tips off on Thursday evening, and NIT quarterfinal action begins tomorrow night. But today brings a full day of College Basketball Invitational quarterfinal play in Daytona Beach, Florida, and the second game on the slate sees Montana take on Arkansas State at 2:00 pm ET.

The fifth-seeded Grizzlies (24-11), who lost to rival Montana State in the championship game of the Big Sky tournament, moved on in the CBI with an 82-79 overtime win over Presbyterian yesterday. Aanen Moody was the hero for Montana, scoring 34 points (14 of 21 FG, 6 of 9 3PT) and adding six rebounds and five assists.

The fourth-seeded Red Wolves of Arkansas State (19-16), who lost to James Madison in the championship game of the Sun Belt tournament, advanced to today’s matchup with an 86-85 win over Bethune Cookman on Saturday. Freddy Hicks led the way with 21 points and nine rebounds, and Derrian Ford’s basket in the final minute put ASU ahead for good in a high-scoring matchup at the Ocean Center.

The winner of this game will face either #1 seed High Point or #9 seed Cleveland State in the semifinals tomorrow. Who will it be? Read on for a Montana-Arkansas State prediction, as well as best bets for this Big Sky-Sun Belt showdown.

Montana vs Arkansas State Odds

Odds are via BetOnline, a longtime fixture in the sports betting industry. Check out our BetOnline sportsbook review, then grab yourself a nice sign-up bonus to bet on today’s NCAA basketball action.

Spread

• Montana +3 (-113)
• Arkansas State -3 (-107)

Over/Under

• Over 155 (-107)
• Under 155 (-113)

Moneyline

• Montana +130
• Arkansas State -150

Looking for more picks for today’s men’s college basketball games? Our NCAA basketball picks page features moneyline, spread, and total (over/under) picks for today’s CBI and CIT matchups.

Montana vs Arkansas State Betting Analysis and Prediction

Both the Grizzlies and Red Wolves have played well down the stretch, but one ill-timed loss is why they weren’t a part of the March Madness bracket.

Montana beat Montana State by double digits twice in the regular season, but the underdog Bobcats won 85-70 to deny the Grizzlies their first NCAA Tournament bid since 2019.

While Montana was favored in their conference championship game, Arkansas State was an underdog against James Madison after upsetting #1 seed Appalachian State in the semis and went down 91-71 to the dominant Dukes.

But there’s still some hardware to play for, and this could be the closest game of the CBI quarterfinals.

It could also be the highest-scoring game of the bunch. Offense is the strength for both Montana (77.3 PPG) and Arkansas State (78.9 PPG).

The Grizzlies are 87^th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency and 262^nd in adjusted defensive efficiency, while the Red Wolves are 61^st in adjusted offensive efficiency and 269^th in adjusted defensive efficiency.

Montana vs Arkansas State Players to Watch

• Montana: Aanen Moody (17.2 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 2.3 APG)
• Arkansas State: Caleb Fields (12.2 PPG, 5.7 APG, 2.9 RPG)

Montana is 18^th in Division I in field-goal percentage (48.6%) and shoot respectably from outside (35.9%). They have five active players who average at least 8.5 PPG, led by Moody.

Arkansas State doesn’t shoot as well, coming in at 44.3% from the field and 34.7% from three.

However, the Red Wolves put up a lot of shots, ranking 38^th in Division I in field goal attempts per game (62.1) and 25^th in three-point attempts per game (26.7). They have six players who average at least 9.2 PPG, and hitting the offensive boards well helps their cause, as they rank 33^rd in offensive rebound percentage.

I’m expecting a fair number of points in this matchup, and I think it will be close throughout. Montana may have more wins, but on the balance of conference strength, results against quality competition, and metrics, Arkansas State profiles as the stronger team overall. I think the Red Wolves will pull out the win.

Montana vs Arkansas State Prediction: Arkansas State to win and cover

Montana vs Arkansas State Best Bets

Arkansas State -3 & Montana/Arkansas State over 155

This season, Arkansas State is 15-5 SU and 13-7 ATS as a favorite, but they have been especially good as a favorite more recently, going 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS in their last nine games as a favorite.

Interested in Learning More About Betting on March Madness & NCAA Basketball?

If you are interested in learning more about betting on men’s or women’s NCAA basketball, check out our college basketball betting guide. It covers the basics of wagering on March Madness, the Mountain West, the MAAC, McNeese State, and beyond.

• College Basketball Betting Guide: How to Bet on NCAA Basketball in 2024

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