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Monday College Basketball Best Bets | November 18, 2024
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Updated:
Read Time: 5 minutes
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For my Monday College Basketball Best Bets, I’m leaning into two matchups that highlight one of the key lessons I’ve emphasized all season: don’t fear the big spreads. Top-ranked teams often steamroll mid-major opponents, and today’s slate features two powerhouses poised to dominate against overmatched competition. One team comes in rested and ready to flex their elite defense, while the other faces an opponent reeling from a grueling overtime loss. Let’s dive into the numbers and the mismatches that make these games stand out.
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College Basketball 2024-25: 15-15 (-1.29 Units)
This past weekend: 3-3 (-0.27 Units)
North Alabama vs #5 Auburn
Do the Tigers have enough juice in the tank to cover this spread?
North Alabama vs #5 Auburn odds are courtesy of BetOnline, a longtime fixture among the top online sports betting sites. Check out our BetOnline sportsbook review, then bag a big bonus (100% if your first deposit is with Bitcoin, Ethereum, or another cryptocurrency) to bet on College Basketball games.
Bet: Auburn (-29.5) on BetOnline
Since the start of the college basketball season, I’ve been preaching this: don’t be afraid of big spreads. Top-ranked teams facing mid-major programs ranked 150 or lower on advanced analytics sites often dominate these matchups. The underdogs simply don’t have the firepower to keep up.
Take Baylor vs. Tarleton State as an example. Baylor was favored by 30—and won by 63. Tarleton only managed 41 points. Sometimes, the books just do not make the number high enough.
Today, it’s Auburn against North Alabama. The Lions are coming off a tough overtime loss to Samford on Friday, and now, on short rest, they face the No. 3 team in BartTorvik’s rankings. Auburn has already faced—and crushed—much tougher competition this season. They beat Vermont by 51, Houston by five, and Kent State by 23—all three of those teams are ranked higher than North Alabama or anyone the Lions have played.
North Alabama’s defense is a concern. They just allowed No. 119 Samford (Barttorvik rankings) to score 97 points while shooting nearly 50% from the floor and 37.5% from deep. That’s a major wake-up call as they now face Auburn, the No. 2 team in adjusted offensive efficiency and two-point percentage. Auburn will feast down low.
Yes, Samford ranks No. 3 in pace, which explains the high-scoring game, but Auburn plays fast too—still in the top 100 according to Haslametrics. North Alabama will struggle to keep up with the Tigers’ speed and physicality.
At the end of the day, I’ll always back the team with more rest, a tougher schedule, and the ability to dominate on both ends.
War Eagle tonight.
IU Indianapolis vs #7 Iowa State
Will Iowa State cover their first spread of the season against the Jaguars?
IUPU vs #7 Iowa State odds are courtesy of BetOnline, a longtime fixture among the top online sports betting sites. Check out our BetOnline sportsbook review, then bag a big bonus (100% if your first deposit is with Bitcoin, Ethereum, or another cryptocurrency) to bet on College Basketball games.
Bet: Iowa State (-33.5) on BetOnline
A team that’s been shaky when it comes to covering spreads early on is Iowa State, sitting at 0-2 ATS this season. To be fair, the first game had a massive spread of 46.5—against the worst-ranked team on BartTorvik. But that was the first game of the season. The Cyclones have gotten their reps in, and now they’re set to take on IU Indianapolis (formerly IUPUI).
The Jaguars rank as the 19th worst team on BartTorvik and the second worst on Haslametrics. They’re 0-2 against Division I opponents, coming off a tough loss to Eastern Michigan—a game where they were favored by five but lost by three. They managed to keep it somewhat close against Xavier, losing by 14, but now they have to face an Iowa State team that’s had a full week to rest and prepare.
To break it down without all the advanced metrics: this is the worst offense in the country vs. the best defense, and the best offense vs. the worst defense. IU Indianapolis is awful on both ends of the floor, while Iowa State is one of the top teams in the country. The Cyclones are ranked inside the top 30 in offense and top 10 in defense. Meanwhile, IU Indianapolis is dead last in defense and 10th worst in offense, according to Haslametrics.
After last week’s 82-56 blowout win over Kansas City, Iowa State should roll through the Jaguars. There’s no lookahead spot here—their next game against Auburn is a week away. If it were Thursday, Friday, or Saturday, I might be hesitant, but with a week’s rest, the Cyclones should be locked in.
If Iowa State can hold IU Indianapolis under 50 points, they should cover this spread with ease. They’ve held both opponents under 60 while scoring over 80 in each game. This is a well-coached team that plays intense defense, and I expect nothing but dominance tonight.
Roll Clones!
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd who spends his free time on Bart Torvik, Ken Pom and Batters-Box.com. He has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog, he loves them all.
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