Michigan State vs Mississippi State Prediction & Best Bets: Will the Real MSU Please Stand Up?

Bragging rights and a place in the second round of the NCAA Tournament will be up for grabs in the opening game of the first round as #9 Michigan State and #8 Mississippi State meet in a West Region matchup in Charlotte (12:15 pm ET, CBS).

With all due respect to Missouri State (hasn’t been to the NCAA Tournament since 1999), Morehead State (in this year’s tournament, but Morehead isn’t even a state!), and even Moscow State (who isn’t eligible for the NCAA Tournament because it’s in Russia), this afternoon’s battle at the Spectrum Center will grant the winner (un)official rights to be referred to as the real MSU.

More importantly, either the Bulldogs (21-13, 8-10 SEC) or Spartans (19-14, 10-10 Big Ten) will book a spot in the second round, where they will very likely take on #1 seed North Carolina.

The MSU from East Lansing, Michigan is in the Big Dance for the 26^th straight time, and they are aiming to reach the round of 32 for the 20^th time in that stretch.

The MSU from Starkville, Mississippi, on the other hand, is in dancing for just the third time since 2009 and hasn’t reached the second round since 2008.

But pedigrees and past results count for only so much at this point. The Spartans are favored by an ever so slight margin, but the Bulldogs, who have some impressive wins this season, have the goods to get it done in Charlotte.

Michigan State vs Mississippi State Odds

Odds are via BetOnline, a longtime fixture in the sports betting industry. Check out our BetOnline sportsbook review, then grab yourself a nice sign-up bonus to bet on today’s NCAA basketball action.

Spread

• Michigan State -1 (-110)
• Mississippi State +1 (-110)

Over/Under

• Over 130.5 (-113)
• Under 130.5 (-107)

Moneyline

• Michigan State -118
• Mississippi State -102

Looking for more men’s college hoops picks? Our NCAA basketball picks page features moneyline, spread, and total (over/under) picks for all of the top games each day.

Michigan State vs Mississippi State Betting Analysis and Prediction

Inconsistency has been a hallmark for both of these teams this season, which is why they are both lower seeds than they could have been.

Michigan State’s season started with an overtime loss to James Madison, includes a 24-point win over Baylor, and could finish with six losses in eight games if they don’t beat the Bulldogs.

Mississippi State’s season includes a home loss to Southern University, two wins over Tennessee, and could also finish with six losses in eight games if they don’t beat the Spartans.

But there’s a lot of talent on both sides, and both teams can make a run if things click.

Mississippi State made it to the First Four and no further last season because they couldn’t score. They still have issues doing so at times, but after ranking 176^th at KenPom in adjusted offensive efficiency last season, they enter this matchup at 60^th in that metric.

Did they sell their defensive soul in exchange for leading scorer Josh Hubbard (17.1 PPG) and improved offense? That’s a stretch, but after allowing 75+ points only three times in 34 games last season, the Bulldogs have allowed 75+ points 11 times in 34 games this season.

That might be more relevant if Mississippi State reaches the second round, however. Michigan State has scored 75+ points only 13 times this season, including just once in their last eight games.

That isn’t the only reason why the Spartans are 3-5 in that stretch, but it is a contributor. But they’re also unlikely to allow a lot of points (65.9 PPG allowed this season), so even if they struggle to score against the Bulldogs, it might not matter.

Because both teams are strong defensively and can regularly go wandering in the wilderness offensively, a lower-scoring game is likely. But who will come out on top? In my West Region breakdown, I picked the Bulldogs to reach the Sweet Sixteen, so look for the Maroon and White to claim MSU bragging rights.

Prediction: Mississippi State to cover and win

Michigan State vs Mississippi State Best Bets

Mississippi State +1 & Cameron Matthews Over 8.5 Points

A lot of Michigan State’s attention will be on Hubbard and Mississippi State big man Tolu Smith, which could free up Matthews (9.5 PPG, 6.9 RPG, 2.9 APG) for some easy opportunities to score.

Matthews had 18 points in the Bulldogs’ SEC Tournament rout of Tennessee and has scored nine or more points 19 times this season. At evens, this is great value, especially since he shoots 62.4% from the field.

More March Madness Betting Information

Where Can You Bet on March Madness This Year?

Each year, millions upon of millions of March Madness bets are placed at the top online sports betting sites.

Most March Madness betting takes place around and at tournament time, which is from mid-March to early April. But throughout the year, you can bet on who you think will win the college basketball national championship.

Along with men’s college basketball odds, most good sportsbooks now carry women’s college basketball national championship odds, which are drawing a lot of attention this season with the likes of South Carolina, Iowa, and LSU vying to cut down the nets in Cleveland, Ohio on April 7.

Numerous sportsbooks are good for March Madness betting, but in addition to BetOnline, here are some of the books that we have reviewed and highly recommend:

• BetDSI (Review)
• BetUS (Review)
• Bovada (Review)
• MyBookie (Review)

If you are unfamiliar with any of the above sites, check out our sportsbook reviews to learn more about them. Speaking of offers, keep an eye on the latest sportsbook offers from these books and others as the countdown to the opening tip of March Madness continues. That way, you will not miss out on any special sports betting promos and bonuses to pad your bankroll for March Madness betting.

Other March Madness Content at Betting News

If you’d like to check out our other March Madness content, our March Madness guide is where you can find it all in one tidy place. But here’s a rundown of some of what we have put together to help you with your NCAA Tournament betting this year.

We’re also covering the 2024 NIT, so check out that content as well.

• Men’s March Madness Futures Odds
• Women’s March Madness Futures Odds
• 2024 Men’s Final Four Odds
• Six Men’s March Madness Sleepers for 2024
• Best March Madness Betting Tips & Strategies
• March Madness Betting Trends & Stats to Know for 2024
• Where to Find the Best March Madness Betting Picks
• Best March Madness Betting Sites for This Year
• This Year’s Best March Madness Bracket Challenges
• Betting News Bracket Mania (Our FREE March Madness Bracket Challenge!)

Interested in Learning More About Betting on March Madness & NCAA Basketball?

If you are interested in learning more about betting on men’s or women’s NCAA basketball, check out our college basketball betting guide. It covers the basics of wagering on March Madness, the Mountain West, the MAAC, McNeese State, and beyond.

• College Basketball Betting Guide: How to Bet on NCAA Basketball in 2024

Also, follow Betting News on X/Twitter, Twitch, and TikTok to get more March Madness and NCAA basketball insight from myself and the rest of our team. We’re cooking up a lot of great NCAA Tournament content for both the men’s and women’s tournaments, so hit those links so you don’t miss out on any of it.

• Betting News on “X”/Twitter
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