Mississippi State vs Florida Basketball Prediction & Picks (2023 SEC Tournament)

This afternoon, Mississippi State can potentially lock up a place in the March Madness bracket with an SEC Tournament win over Florida in Nashville (1:00 pm ET, SEC Network).

The ninth-seeded Bulldogs (20-11, 8-10 SEC) missed some late-season opportunities to put things beyond doubt before the SEC Tournament. But they still enter today in the field, coming in as an #11 seed at both ESPN and CBS.

That said, they don’t have a great margin for error, and a loss to the eighth-seeded Gators could relegate them to another appearance in the NIT.

Will Chris “The Dentist” Jans and the Bulldogs pick up a valuable win today in Nashville? Read on for our Mississippi State vs Florida prediction, as well as our picks for the matchup between the Bulldogs and Gators.

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Mississippi State vs Florida Odds

Odds are via BetOnline as of Thursday, March 9, 2023.

Spread

• Mississippi State -3.5 (-102)
• Florida +3.5 (-120)

Over/Under

• Over 131.5 (-110)
• Under 131.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Mississippi State -154
• Florida +128

Will Mississippi State Struggle Against SEC East Opposition Yet Again?

Unlike in football, the SEC is not separated in divisions in basketball.

But the Bulldogs have not fared particularly well this season against teams who are part of the SEC East in football.

Mississippi State vs SEC East Opponents (2022-23 Season)

• SU Record: 3-7
• ATS Record: 3-7
• SU Losses: Tennessee x 2, at Georgia, vs Florida, vs Kentucky, at Missouri, at Vanderbilt
• SU Wins: South Carolina x 2, vs Missouri

Offensive struggles have doomed Mississippi State have doomed Mississippi State in most of their losses this season.

To date, eight of MSU’s 11 losses have come when they have been held to fewer than 65 points. One of the three losses was a 61-59 loss to Florida in Starkville on January 21.

That was the fourth loss in a run of five straight losses for the Bulldogs, who have gone 8-3 SU and ATS since a 66-63 loss at Alabama on January 25.

Things didn’t go so well defensively in last Saturday’s 77-72 loss at Vanderbilt, but strong defense has been the backbone of their success this season.

Offensive improvement, however, has been key to their push to get back into the March Madness picture.

After scoring more than 65 points just once in a stretch in which they lost eight of nine, the Bulldogs have scored 65 or more points eight times in their last 11 games. And when MSU has scored 65 or more points this season, they are 14-3 SU and 9-8-0 ATS.

They may need to put some points on the board this afternoon against Florida, who has scored 70+ points four times in five games since losing Colin Castleton, the SEC’s Defensive Player of the Year, for the season due to a broken hand suffered against Ole Miss.

The counter to that is that the Gators have given up no fewer than 67 points in the five games since Castleton was injured in the 79-64 win over the Rebels. And when they have allowed 65 or more points this season, they are just 6-11 SU and 3-14-0 ATS.

Mississippi State vs Florida Prediction and Picks

Bulldogs vs Gators Prediction: Mississippi State to win

Bulldogs vs Gators Picks: Mississippi State to cover (Best Value: -3 @ Bovada Sportsbook & BetUS)

Other College Basketball Content at Betting News

• March Madness Bubble Watch
• March Madness Sleepers
• Rutgers vs Michigan Basketball Prediction & Picks (2023 Big Ten Tournament)
• Penn State vs Illinois Basketball Prediction & Picks (2023 Big Ten Tournament)