Michigan vs St. John’s Prediction & Picks: Wolverines, Red Storm Match Up at MSG

Last Tuesday, the Rick Pitino era at St. John’s got off to a winning start with a double-digit win over Stony Brook. Tonight will bring the first real test of the new college basketball season for the Red Storm, as they will take on Michigan at Madison Square Garden (6:30 pm ET, FS1).

In addition to being an intriguing early matchup between power conference programs, this could prove to be a pivotal game come the business end of the season.

As per ESPN’s early-season March Madness Bracketology, St. John’s is on the “Last Four Byes” line, along with Ohio State, Iowa State, and Indiana. Michigan, meanwhile, is on the “Next Four Out” line, along with Stanford, West Virginia, and Iowa.

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The Red Storm opened the season with a 90-74 win over Stony Brook last Tuesday, and while it wasn’t a perfect performance–St John’s committed 15 turnovers–it went about as well as a season opener with a new coach and a number of new players could be hoped. St. John’s shot 51.5% from the field overall and exactly 50% from three, and they outrebounded the Seawolves by 13.

It’s been an easy, breezy, beautiful start for Michigan as well, with the Wolverines, who opened the season with routs of UNC Asheville and Youngstown State.

With both teams starting strong offensively, should we expect a high-scoring contest tonight at MSG? The total for this matchup is one of the highest on today’s college basketball board, with only North Florida-South Carolina State, FIU-Miami, Southern-Arizona, and LIU-Pepperdine having higher totals.

Michigan vs St. John’s Odds

Odds are courtesy of Bovada.

Spread

• Michigan +3 (-115)
• St. John’s -3 (-105)

Over/Under

• Over 155 (-110)
• Under 155 (-110)

Moneyline

• Michigan +130
• St. John’s -150

Michigan vs St. John’s Prediction and Picks

Prediction: St. John’s to win

Picks: St. John’s -2.5 (-115 at Bovada) & Michigan/St. John’s over 155.5 (-110 at Bovada)

Pitino brought a number of transfers with him from Iona and other schools, and a trio of those transfers (Harvard transfer Chris Ledlum, Iona transfer Daniss Jenkins, and Penn transfer Jordan Dingle) made big contributions in the opener.

But Joel Soriano, one of the holdovers from the Mike Anderson era, is one of the best centers in the country and a better building block than a lot of new coaches have to work with.

Soriano had 22 points, 11 rebounds, and three blocks against Stony Brook, and Michigan will be in trouble if they can’t corral him.

The Wolverines suffered some major losses from last year’s team but have leaned largely on their returnees thus far, led by sophomore guard Dug McDaniel (19.0 PPG, 6.0 APG). But they are also getting major contributions from their major portal addition, Tennessee transfer Olivier Nkamhoua (21.0 PPG, 8.5 RPG, 3.5 APG), who is clearly relishing no longer being a part of a Rick Barnes team.

It’s certainly too early still to analyze metrics too deeply, but in the early stages of the season, both Michigan and St. John’s are in the top 50 in the country in offensive efficiency and top 30 in effective field-goal percentage.

Obviously, competition is a factor there, but I think we should see both teams bring it on the offensive end tonight at MSG. So, a higher number here doesn’t put me off.

As for who will win tonight? I don’t know everything, but I know not to bet against Rick Pitino in this spot. Why? Because Rick Pitino.

How good will be St. John’s be this season? We’ll see, but at least as far as tonight as concerned, I’m rolling with the Red Storm.