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Michigan State vs Iowa Basketball Prediction & Picks

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Michigan State vs Iowa Basketball Prediction & Picks cover

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After a couple of ugly performances on the road, will a return home help Iowa to a win over Michigan State today (12:00 pm ET, ESPN?

The Hawkeyes (17-11, 9-8 Big Ten) appear to be safely in the March Madness field, though losing their final three games and going one-and-done in the Big Ten tournament could create some anxiety on Selection Sunday.

A win over the Spartans (17-10, 9-7 Big Ten) would all but lock them into the Big Dance, and it would be a positive sight after a 20-point loss at Northwestern and a 12-point loss at Wisconsin.

Will the Hawkeyes right the ship today? Read on for our Michigan State vs Iowa basketball prediction, as well as our picks and analysis for today’s tilt in Iowa City.

This is just one of 130 games on today’s college basketball schedule, and while we’ll be covering only a few of those games, we recommend checking out Doc’s Sports if you are looking for more college basketball picks.

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Michigan State vs Iowa Odds

Odds are via BetOnline as of Saturday, February 25, 2023, at 8:10 am ET.

Spread

Michigan State +5.5 (-102)
Iowa -5.5 (-120)

Over/Under

Over 144.5 (-110)
Under 144.5 (-110)

Moneyline

Michigan State +198
Iowa -245

Will the Hawkeyes Break Out of Their Offensive Rut at Home?

If Iowa consistently played as well as on the road as they do at home, they would be in the running for a #4 or #5 seed in the NCAA Tournament.

With just Tuesday’s game at Indiana remaining, the Hawkeyes are 2-7 SU and ATS on the road in conference play. They have lost five times by double digits and are averaging just 66.2 points per game on the road.

At the complete opposite end of the spectrum, Iowa is 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS at home in Big Ten play, with today’s game against Michigan State and their regular season finale against Nebraska to come.

In their conference games at Carver-Hawkeye Arena, the Hawkeyes are averaging more than 20 points per game more than they do on the road, scoring at a clip of 86.5 PPG.

To further drive home the disparity between their results at home and on the road, Iowa has yet to score 80 points on the road in conference play but has failed to hit that mark only once at home, a 78-75 OT loss to Wisconsin in their conference opener.

As one might expect, this has all had a distinct effect on over/under results. In Iowa’s eight home games in Big Ten play, the over is 7-1. But in their nine road games, the over has hit just four times.

That includes a major miss in Iowa’s 63-61 loss at Michigan State on January 26, when the total was set at 146.

Michigan State vs Iowa Prediction and Picks

Spartans vs Hawkeyes Prediction: Iowa to win

Spartans vs Hawkeyes Picks: Michigan State/Iowa over 145.5 (Best Value: BetMGM) & Iowa first half -3 (Best Value: BetUS)

The Hawkeyes stunk it up in Evanston and Madison, but I expect them to continue their trend of being much better at home than on the road.

Michigan State hasn’t been fantastic on the road in conference play either, going 3-5 SU and ATS, compared to 6-2 SU and ATS at home.

So, as easy as it might be to fade Iowa and back the under with the matchup in East Lansing in mind and after the Hawkeyes’ losses at Northwestern and Wisconsin, I suggest doing the opposite.

Where to Bet on Michigan State vs Iowa

There’s a good chance you may already have an account at one or more of the sports betting sites we recommend. But it’s always nice to have options, because as is indicated in the above picks, you will often find better odds at one book over others.