#5 Michigan vs #1 Auburn: Sweet 16 Odds & Best Bets (3/28)

The SEC and Big Ten meet in the Sweet 16 twice in the South Region, as Ole Miss and Michigan State face off, but we also have the Michigan Wolverines taking on the top ranked Auburn Tigers, with a shot at the Elite Eight on the line. Colby Marchio brought you his best bet as the Rebels take on Sparty, but here we will talk about Dusty May against Bruce Pearl.

The Tigers have been the most dominant team in the country all year long. Ever since they fought each other on the plane to Houston in November, this team has been something else. They are Top 25 in eFG% on both sides of the ball, but things did get a little shaky down the stretch late in the year. Auburn lost their last two regular season games, and dropped 3 of their L4 before the Big Dance after losing to Tennessee in the SEC Semifinals. They’ve looked fine in both games so far, but now they face a real foe.

Can Auburn keep things rolling against Michigan? Or will the Wolverines shock the top ranked Tigers?

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#5 Michigan Wolverines vs #1 Auburn Tigers: Sweet 16 Preview

Matchup Information – Michigan vs Auburn

• Venue & Location: State Farm Arena (Atlanta, GA)
• Date: Friday, March 28th, 2025
• Tip Off: 9:39pm Eastern
• Broadcast: CBS

Betting Odds

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Spread

• Michigan +9 (-113)
• Auburn -9 (-107)

Money Line

• Michigan +335
• Auburn -415

Total

• Over 154 (-110)
• Under 154 (-110)

Can Tigers Keep Their Perfect Season Going?

Auburn relies heavily on Johni Broome. He leads the team in points, rebounds, assists, blocks and playing time, averaging a double double over the course of 30 minutes per game. However, the 6’10” 240 pound senior will face a couple of 7 footers that could make his life hell.

The Tigers have not seen a front court like this all season long. Danny Wolf is 7 feet tall and handles the ball as well as any guard in the country. He’s a nightmare matchup, being far too quick for Broome or Dylan Cardwell. They’ll also be occupied by 7’1″ center Vladislav Goldin, who has already been to the Final Four with Dusty May two years ago at FAU. He has tourney experience, and let me tell you, this team is RED hot.

The Wolverines lost the last three games of the regular season: at home to Illinois (One tourney win), at home to Maryland (Sweet 16 team), and on the road to Michigan State (Another Sweet 16 team and possible Elite Eight matchup). Those aren’t bad losses. They lost at home to Sparty as well, but other than that they handled business down the stretch. Plus, they rallied and won three straight games to win the Big Ten Tournament. They got revenge on Maryland, beat Purdue (Sweet 16 Team) and took down Wisconsin (One tourney win), and now I think they have the personnel to pull off this upset against Auburn.

#5 Michigan Wolverines vs #1 Auburn Tigers Best Bets

Michigan vs Auburn Prediction: Michigan Wins Outright, Under 154.5

Best Bets: Michigan +9 (-113) BetOnline

The Big Boys from Big Blue are going to be a Big Problem in this ball game.

Wolf is on the court over 75% of the time, and Goldin adds 27+ minutes per game as well. They share the court plenty, have great high-low action from the free throw line, and I expect them to dominate this undersized Auburn front court. Broome is a big body, don’t get me wrong, but Chaney Johnson is just 6’7″. Dylan Cardwell is 6’11” and will need to see more than his usual 20 minutes, however the Tigers have lost 4 of their L5 where he’s played over his season average.

Cardwell playing more often usually means Broome is in foul trouble, which I believe could be a problem in this contest. Auburn is Bottom 50 overall in FT Rate defense and bottom 35 over their last 10 games, so if Broome gets two quick fouls, Michigan could run away with it and never look back. The Wolverines are Top 100 in FT Rate offense, as well as Top 10 in adjusted offensive efficiency and Top 6 in eFG% over their last 10 contests.

I think they are playing as good of ball as anyone in the country, they have a coach who has been in this position before, and they matchup incredibly well against this top seeded Tigers team. The Wolverines are equipped to bring down Goliath, and I believe they do exactly that to move on.

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