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Miami vs UConn Basketball Prediction & Picks (Final Four Semifinal #2)

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Miami vs UConn Basketball Prediction & Picks (Final Four Semifinal #2) cover

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Will Jim Larranaga be a part of crushing UConn’s national championship dreams again? This time, it can be as the coach of the Miami Hurricanes, who will take on the Huskies in the second of tonight’s Final Four semifinal matchups in Houston (8:49 pm ET, CBS).

In 2006, Larranaga and George Mason memorably reached the Final Four with a momentous upset of UConn. Seventeen years later, he has the Hurricanes in the Final Four for the first time, as they roared back to stun Texas in the Midwest Regional final after trailing by double digits with under nine minutes left.

While the Hurricanes needed a big rally to book a trip to Houston, UConn was absolutely dominant in dispatching Gonzaga by 28 points in the West Regional final.

Will the Huskies roll again to advance to a matchup with either the Owls or Aztecs? Read on for our Miami vs UConn prediction and picks.

Looking for More Men’s and Women’s Final Four Picks?

At Betting News, we will have predictions and picks for each game of the men’s and women’s Final Four.

FAU vs San Diego State Prediction & Picks (Men’s Final Four Semifinal #1)
LSU vs Iowa Prediction & Picks (Women’s National Championship Game)

But if you are interested in checking out picks elsewhere to get another perspective, there are a number of reputable sports handicapping services that we recommend.

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Miami vs UConn Odds

Odds are via BetOnline as of Saturday, April 1, 2023, at 2:50 pm ET.

Spread

Miami +5.5 (-110)
UConn -5.5 (-110)

Over/Under

Over 149.5 (-110)
Under 149.5 (-110)

Moneyline

Miami +198
UConn -245

Will Defensive Deficiencies Cost Miami Massively?

Jordan Miller Miami Hurricanes basketball

Of the four men’s Final Four participants, the Hurricanes rank the highest nationally in points per game.

21. Miami (79.6 PPG)
28. UConn (78.8 PPG)
37. FAU (78.0 PPG)
183. San Diego State (71.5 PPG)

Since being limited by Drake in a 63-56 win in the first round, the Hurricanes have scored 85, 89, and 88 points in eliminating #4 seed Indiana (by 16), #1 seed Houston (by 14), and #2 seed Texas (by seven).

Like Miami, UConn has also scored 80+ points three times in the NCAA Tournament.

They went for 87 in a 24-point win over Iona in the first round, 88 in a 23-point win over Arkansas in the Sweet Sixteen, and 82 in their rout of the Gonzaga in the Elite Eight.

Even the 70 points they scored against Saint Mary’s in the second round is an impressive feat, given that the Gaels gave up 70+ points to only three other teams this season (Gonzaga three times and Oral Roberts and Loyola Marymount once apiece).

The Huskies have won their four NCAA Tournament games by 24, 15, 23, and 28 points by combining their offensive exploits with some stout defense.

That is the area where things could be decisive for Miami. The Hurricanes rank 104th in adjusted defensive efficiency (KenPom), while the other three Final Four teams rank fourth (San Diego State), 11th (UConn), and 30th (FAU).

The ‘Canes have been able to counter that by scoring like they have, but can they beat the Huskies by trying to race them to 85 points? That is a dangerous game to play, even if Huskies star Jordan Hawkins isn’t 100 percent.

Hawkins, who scored 24 points in 28 minutes against Arkansas and 20 in 33 minutes against Gonzaga, has had his practice week affected by a non-COVID illness. But he is expected to play against Miami, and that could be bad news for the Hurricanes.

Miami vs UConn Prediction and Picks

Prediction for Miami vs UConn: UConn to win

Picks for Miami vs UConn: UConn -5.5 (Best Value: Bovada Sportsbook & BetMGM) & Miami/UConn over 149.5 (Best Value: BetMGM)

I’m certainly not underestimating Miami at this point, as they have certainly earned their place in the Final Four.

All of the Hurricanes’ first four NCAA Tournament opponents ranked inside the top 50 in adjusted defensive efficiency, and the only one that had any real success slowing Miami down was Drake. Since shooting only 30.4% from the field against the Bulldogs, the Hurricanes have shot 48.6%, 51.7%, and 59.2%.

But UConn is the best team left in the field, and I expect them to continue to flex their muscles on both ends of the court.

Where to Bet on Miami vs UConn

Here are four legal sports betting sites that we highly recommend and have reviewed, where you can bet on this year’s NCAA men’s and women’s tournaments, as well as the 2023 NIT.