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Miami vs Houston Basketball Prediction & Picks: Best Bets for Canes vs Cougars

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Miami vs Houston Basketball Prediction & Picks: Best Bets for Canes vs Cougars cover

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Last year, Miami knocked out #11 seed Iowa State to reach the Elite Eight for the first time in program history.

This year, they have a tougher challenge if they want to appear in the Midwest Regional final for the second straight season, as they will take on top seed Houston tonight at the T-Mobile Center in Kansas City (7:15 pm ET, CBS).

After withstanding Drake’s upset bid in the first round, the fifth-seeded Hurricanes (27-7) sent fourth-seeded Indiana packing in the second round with a resounding and impressive 85-69 win.

That sets up a showdown with the Cougars (33-3), who were staring a second-round exit at the hands of Auburn but outscored the Tigers by 27 in the second half after trailing by ten at halftime.

Who will advance to Sunday’s final to meet either #3 seed Xavier or #2 seed Texas? Read on for our Miami vs Houston prediction and picks.

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Miami vs Houston Odds

Odds are via BetOnline as of Friday, March 24, 2023.

Spread

Miami +7.5 (-110)
Houston -7.5 (-110)

Over/Under

Over 139.5 (-115)
Under 139.5 (-105)

Moneyline

Miami +275
Houston -350

Formidable ATS Records on the Line for Hurricanes, Cougars

Miami vs Houston Sweet Sixteen prediction preview March Madness Hurricanes vs Cougars

Houston has been favored in every game this season, and barring some absolutely wild line movement, the Cougars will close as a favorite for the 37th time in 37 games.

All in all, dating back to the start of the 2020-21 season, Houston has been favored in 101 of 105 games against Division I opposition. In those 101 games, the Cougars are 61-40-0 ATS.

Over that time period, that total puts them ten wins clear of Toledo, who is 51-28-0 ATS since the start of the 2020-21 season.

The only other power conference team with 50 ATS wins as a favorite over the last three seasons is Baylor, who is 50-37-0 ATS. And the only other team that comes close in terms of games as a favorite is Gonzaga, who is 45-47-5 ATS after covering in epic fashion in their win over UCLA last night.

The Cougars are only 19-17-0 ATS this season, but that is more a reflective of how frequently they have been favored by sizable margins rather than a lack of convincing wins, given that 24 of their 33 wins have been by double digits.

Entering tonight’s game against Miami, Houston has been favored by ten or fewer points only ten times previously this season. They are only 14-13-0 ATS when favored by more than ten points, but they are 6-4-0 when favored by ten or fewer.

So, Miami is certainly in a tough position tonight. But the Hurricanes have a pretty solid record this season in the position they find themselves in.

In eight previous games as an underdog, they are 5-3 SU and 7-1-0 ATS. The lone ATS came to Duke in the ACC Tournament, while the other SU losses were two-point losses at NC State (in OT) and at Duke.

Miami vs Houston Prediction and Picks

Prediction for Miami vs Houston: Houston to win

Picks for Miami vs Houston: Houston team total over 73.5 (Best Value: Bovada Sportsbook) & Marcus Sasser over 17.5 points (Best Value: Bovada Sportsbook)

Miami was able to overcome and overwhelm a limited Indiana team thanks to having the upper hand both inside and outside.

I think they are certainly capable of upsetting Houston, but the Cougars aren’t limited like the Hoosiers are. Sure, they play a brand of basketball that isn’t always pretty, but they are not incapable of lighting up the scoreboard, as the second half against Auburn showed.

With Marcus Sasser closer to full health after getting some time to rest, I like the Cougars to be closer to their best across 40 minutes. I’m staying away from the spread, but I do like them to put some points on the board tonight as they move on to the Elite Eight for a third straight year.

Where to Bet on Miami vs Houston

Here are four legal sports betting sites that we highly recommend and have reviewed, where you can bet on this year's NCAA men’s and women’s tournaments, as well as the 2023 NIT.