Miami vs Duke Basketball Prediction & Picks: Can the Blue Devils pick up a big win at home?

Most years, a Duke win over Miami wouldn’t move the needle all that much. But when the Blue Devils are in transition and the Hurricanes are one of only three ranked ACC teams, a win today would be significant.

The two teams are set for a noon tip at Cameroon Indoor Stadium, and ESPN will have all of the action from Durham.

The Blue Devils (13-5, 4-3 ACC) come into today’s game ninth in the ACC standings, while the Hurricanes (15-3, 6-2 ACC) are in a four-way tie with Pittsburgh, Virginia, and Wake Forest for the conference’s second-best record behind first-place Clemson (15-4, 7-1 ACC).

In ESPN’s latest Bracketology update, Duke is penciled as a #6 seed, while Miami is on the #5 line. With a lack of notable wins on their resume, today’s game is a must-win for Duke both with seeding in mind and when their next two games are on the road, where they have just won in four games in conference play.

Will the Blue Devils continue to protect their house? Read on for our Miami vs Duke basketball prediction and picks.

Miami vs Duke Odds

Odds are via BetOnline as of Saturday, January 21, 2023, at 7:15 am ET. This article may also include odds from our other recommended legal sports betting sites.

Spread

• Miami +5.5 (-110)
• Duke -5.5 (-110)

Over/Under

• Over 148.5 (-110)
• Under 148.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Miami +188
• Duke -230

Blue Devils Likely to Remain Hot at Home

Duke is unlikely to have to sweat things out on Selection Sunday, but it seems likely that home success will be the backbone of the Blue Devils’ NCAA Tournament resume.

As mentioned above, they have just one win on the road in ACC play, which was a one-point win at Boston College, who is 8-11 overall and 2-6 in the ACC. They lost by 11 at Wake Forest, by 24 at NC State, and by eight at Clemson this past Saturday.

They are having no such issues with taking care of business at home, however.

Consistent offensive production remains an issue, but they have scored 75, 86, and 77 points at home in conference play and have scored no fewer than 71 points at home this season. By comparison, their high on the road in ACC play is 70 points, in their loss at Wake Forest.

Duke hasn’t allowed more than 72 points at home this season, but Miami, who ranks first in the ACC and tenth nationally in offensive efficiency, has scored 80, 76, 70, and 81 in four road games in conference play.

Offensive Statistics and Metrics for Miami

• PPG: 78.4 (44th in Division I)
• FG%: 48.1% (32nd in Division I)
• 3PT%: 33.7% (207th in Division I)
• FT%: 76.5% (23rd in Division I)
• Offensive Efficiency: 10th

The Hurricanes have scored at least 70 points in all but one conference game, and in the one game they didn’t, scoring 66 points against Virginia was enough for a two-point win.

But Miami, like Duke, has some road struggles that they need to shake off sooner rather than later. The Hurricanes won their first two road games in ACC action, but they go into today’s game with losses at Georgia Tech and NC State in their last two road games.

Miami vs Duke Prediction and Picks

Miami vs Duke Prediction: Duke to win

Miami vs Duke Picks: Miami/Duke under 148.5 (BetOnline/Bovada Sportsbook/BetMGM) & Kyle Filipowski over 15.5 points (Bovada Sportsbook)

I don’t think that this Duke team should be favored by this much, even at home.

But they are finding a way to get it done at home, and in their most recent home game, they scored 77 points and beat Pitt by eight despite shooting only 36.4% (24 of 66) from the field and 22.2% (6 of 27) from three and committing 17 turnovers.

I think that Duke will find a way to win this game as well, even if they have to do win ugly.