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Memphis vs Houston Basketball Prediction & Picks (2023 AAC Tournament Final)

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Memphis vs Houston Basketball Prediction & Picks (2023 AAC Tournament Final) cover

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Houston is off to the Big 12 next season, but they can depart the American Athletic Conference with a third straight AAC Tournament title with a win over Memphis today (3:15 pm ET, ESPN).

For the first time since 2019, the American’s top two seeds will face off for the tournament title, much to the appreciation of some bubble team out there.

The top-seeded and top-ranked Cougars (31-2) advanced with a 69-48 win over #4 seed Cincinnati, while the second-seeded Tigers crushed #3 seed Tulane 94-54 to advance.

Will the Cougars close their conference tenure with another title, or will the Tigers win their first conference crown of any kind in a decade? Read on for our Memphis vs Houston basketball prediction and picks.

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Memphis vs Houston Odds

Odds are via BetOnline as of Sunday, March 12, 2023.

Spread

Memphis +5.5 (-105)
Houston -5.5 (-115)

Over/Under

Over 135.5 (-110)
Under 135.5 (-110)

Moneyline

Memphis +198
Houston -245

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Does Sasser’s Injury Give Memphis a Chance for the Upset?

Yesterday, Houston coasted past Cincinnati by allowing under 50 points for the second straight game in Fort Worth.

But the win came with a big cloud over it, as leading scorer Marcus Sasser exited with around seven minutes left in the first half with a groin strain.

Sasser, the American’s Player of the Year, is listed as questionable for the matchup with Memphis. Given that Houston has already locked up a #1 seed and has Final Four and national championship aspirations, it would make a lot of sense to take no risks with Sasser, who scored 30 of the Cougars’ 60 points in the quarters against East Carolina.

It doesn’t hurt that several players on the team have experience playing without Sasser, who missed the last 25 games of last season with a toe injury.

Memphis still has to contend with an elite defensive team, which held Cincinnati to 25.5% shooting from the field (21.4% from three) a day after holding East Carolina to 31.4% shooting from the field overall and 15.8% shooting from three.

The Cougars have been favored by double digits in 26 of their first 33 games this season, so today’s odds make for an infrequent sight. But when they are favored by fewer than ten points, they are 6-1 SU and 4-3 ATS.

Notably, the under is 6-1-0 in those seven games. The only time the over has hit when the Cougars have not been favored by double digits is their 69-61 win at Virginia. In that game, they won as a 2.5-point favorite, and the final scoreline went well over the total of 115.5.

Memphis vs Houston Prediction and Picks

Prediction for Memphis vs Houston: Houston to win

Picks for Memphis vs Houston: Houston -5.5 (Best Value: BetUS) & Jamal Shead over 13.5 points (Best Value: BetOnline)

Memphis has actually covered the spread nine times in the last ten meetings with Houston, so recent trends are certainly favorable for the Tigers. And with Sasser potentially likely to not play, there’s a good argument for rolling with Memphis.

That said, Houston is still an outstanding team without Sasser, and it’s hard to bet against them here.

In yesterday’s win over Cincinnati, Jamal Shead had 16 points (7 of 11 FG), nine assists, and four rebounds. He scored only 12 points against ECU, but in the previous two games, he had 16 against Memphis and a career-high 26 against Wichita State.

With or without Sasser, I expect Shead to be key to Houston’s success today.