#12 Liberty vs #5 Oregon: NCAA Basketball Odds & Best Bets

We’ve got a late night matchup in Seattle between two teams from opposite coasts. The way over-seeded Oregon Ducks are the five as they face the 12 seeded Liberty Flames out of Virginia. The Conference USA champions are dancing once again, and I think they got a great draw.

Oregon is meh to me. That’s it. Meh.

They aren’t super impressive on either side of the ball, they didn’t excel in the Big Ten in their first year, and they barely squeaked by Indiana (puke) before losing to Michigan State in the quarterfinals. Oregon historically performs well when they make the tournament, but extinguishing the Liberty Flames will be a tough task.

#12 Liberty Flames vs #5 Oregon Ducks: Round of 64

Matchup Information – Liberty vs Oregon

• Venue & Location: Climate Pledge Arena (Seattle, WA)
• Date: Friday, March 21st, 2025
• Tip Off: 10:10pm Eastern
• Broadcast: truTV

Betting Odds

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Spread

• Liberty +7 (-105)
• Oregon -7 (-115)

Money Line

• Liberty +255
• Oregon -305

Total

• Over 138 (-110)
• Under 138 (-110)

Will Ducks Quack Their Way Past Flames?

Oregon has a history of moving on, at least to the actual weekend matchups. Dana Altman has never lost a first round matchup as head coach of the Ducks, but could that end this year? He’s a smart coach with some talented players, and he certainly won’t overlook the C-USA representative.

The Ducks had some very good wins early in the season, and finished the Big Ten regular season with 7 straight wins. But the Big Ten was an extended conference that was sort of top heavy. The bottom half of the league wasn’t very good, so we have to pause for our favorite game… Who. Have. They. Played.

Liberty ranks 54th on Bart Torvik. Other than losing to Michigan State in the Big Ten conference tournament, Oregon ended their season with just one (1) Top 50 win in their last 11 games. The Ducks struggle to get to the free throw line, are middle of the pack nationally in nearly all the advanced analytics, and prefer a slower game. While the Flames also slow things down, they are very, very good on both sides of the ball, and I think the efficiency shows on the court tonight.

#12 Liberty Flames vs #5 Oregon Ducks Best Bets

Liberty vs Oregon Prediction: Liberty Wins Outright, Under 138

Best Bets: Liberty +7 (-105) BetOnline

Let’s talk about the Flames. They are red freaking hot. Over the course of this season, the Flames rank 2nd in the country in eFG% offensively and 7th in eFG Defense. Liberty is not the most battle tested team, but their entire rotation is full of upperclassmen with plenty of experience.

Over their last 10 games, the Flames rank Top 60 in adjusted efficiency on both sides of the ball, they do not give up very many turnovers, and they love to let it fly from downtown. Liberty takes over 50% of their shots from deep, shooting them at a 41.5% clip as a team. This puts them Top 15 in 3P Rate and Top 7 in 3P% in the country, which is always tough to beat if the shots are falling. The Flames also have six different players who average between 9-14 points per game, and all six have been the team’s top scorer on any given night.

While the Ducks defend the perimeter fairly well, I think multiple scoring options from Liberty is going to be too much to handle. Give me Liberty to be the 3rd 12 seed to pull off a Round of 64 upset.

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