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Kentucky vs Kansas State Prediction & Picks (March Madness 2023 Second Round)

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Kentucky used a strong defensive performance to defeat Providence in the first round on Friday. But they may need more offense today to get the win over Kansas State in their second-round matchup this afternoon (2:40 pm ET, CBS).

With top seed Purdue losing to #16 seed Fairleigh Dickinson in the first round, things have really opened up in the East Regional, and sixth-seeded Kentucky (22-11) and the winner of this matchup between third-seeded Kansas State (24-9) could be in position to benefit.

Which group of Wildcats will come out on top in Greensboro? Read on for our Kentucky vs Kansas State prediction and picks.

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Kentucky vs Kansas State Odds

Odds are via BetOnline as of Sunday, March 19, 2023.

Spread

Kentucky -2.5 (-118)
Kansas State +2.5 (-104)

Over/Under

Over 144.5 (-105)
Under 144.5 (-115)

Moneyline

Kentucky -156
Kansas State +130

Can Reeves and Kentucky Reach Lucky Number Seven(ty) Against Kansas State?

Antonio Reeves Kentucky basketball March Madness

The Wildcats from Lexington did not have their best offensive showing against Providence on Friday, but they were able to pull out a 61-53 win over the Friars to move on in Greensboro.

They were only 23 of 63 (36.3%) from the field overall, and they made just 5 of 16 (31.3%) from three. But they got enough offense to get past Providence thanks to Antonio Reeves, who accounted for all five made threes on the way to 22 points.

They also got a monster game on the boards from Oscar Tshiebwe, who had only eight points but hauled in 25 rebounds (11 offensive, 14 defensive) to set a school record for rebounds in an NCAA Tournament game.

Can the SEC Wildcats Stifle the Big 12 Wildcats?

More production on the offensive end is likely to be needed against Kansas State, however. Since scoring fewer than 70 points in three straight games in February, the Wildcats from Manhattan have averaged 76.3 points per game and scored 75 or more points four times.

In their first-round matchup with #14 seed Montana State, KSU shot 58.2% (32 of 55) from the field. They were only 4 of 15 (26.7%) from three, but they made 70% of their two-point shots. Keyontae Johnson had 18 points and eight rebounds, while Markquis Nowell had 17 points, six rebounds, and 14 assists.

How likely is it that the Wildcats from Manhattan have the same offensive success against the Wildcats from Lexington? And if they do, will it lead to a win?

In 33 games this season, Kentucky has given up 70 or more points 13 times. And in those 13 games, they are 4-9 SU and 3-10-0 ATS, compared to 18-2 SU and 13-6-1 ATS when giving up fewer than 70 points.

Even if they give up a few more points today, it’s likely that Kentucky will also be able to generate more offense than they did against Providence.

Kansas State allowed 65 or more points just twice in their first 11 games this season, but they have since allowed 65 or more points 17 times in 22 games, including each of their last six games. In the 19 games in which they have allowed 65 or more points, they are just 10-9 SU and ATS, compared to 11-3 SU and ATS when allowing fewer than 65 points.

When Kentucky has reached even 65 points, they are 19-9 SU and 14-13-1. But take that number to 70, and they are 16-5 SU and 12-8-1 ATS.

Prediction and Picks for Kentucky vs Kansas State

Kentucky vs Kansas State Prediction: Kentucky to win

Kentucky vs Kansas State Picks: Kentucky -2.5 (Best Value: BetUS) & Kentucky team total over 73.5 (Best Value: BetOnline)

Where to Bet on Kentucky vs Kansas State

Here are four legal sports betting sites that we highly recommend and have reviewed, where you can bet on this year’s NCAA men’s and women’s tournaments, as well as the 2023 NIT.