#3 Kentucky vs #2 Tennessee: Sweet 16 Odds & Best Bets (3/28)

Who would’ve thought that with the SEC being so gosh darn good this season, we’d get a matchup in the Sweet 16? The Kentucky Wildcats and Tennessee Volunteers meet for a third matchup this season in the Sweet 16, this time, with the highest stakes possible.

Kentucky has gotten the best of the Volunteers twice already this year, but we know how hard it is to beat an equal caliber team three times in a single season. The first meeting was in Knoxville and the Volunteers were 10.5 point favorites at home. The Wildcats walked into Tennessee and took down the home team outright, winning 78-73. They had 17 points from Jaxson Robinson, whom they haven’t had for a while. He wasn’t available in the next matchup at Rupp Arena, where again, the Volunteers were 3.5 point favorites, even after losing at home. They dropped another one as Kentucky took them down by 11 points.

Can they do so again in the Big Dance when it matters most?

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#3 Kentucky Wildcats vs #2 Tennessee Volunteers: Sweet 16 Preview

Matchup Information – Kentucky vs Tennessee

• Venue & Location: Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis, IN)
• Date: Friday, March 28th, 2025
• Tip Off: 7:39pm Eastern
• Broadcast: TBS/truTV

Betting Odds

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Spread

• Kentucky +4.5 (-115)
• Tennessee -4.5 (-105)

Money Line

• Kentucky +170
• Tennessee -195

Total

• Over 144.5 (-115)
• Under 144.5 (-105)

Vols Seek Double Revenge Against Kentucky

Beating a team three times is hard. Doing that with a first year head coach and without some key players is even more difficult. Plus, they face the 2nd best defense in the country. But everybody put on your tinfoil hat, because does this line really make sense?

Think about it. The Vols were DOUBLE DIGIT favorites at home, lost by 5. Then they laid 3.5 on the road and lost by 11. Now they’re giving 4.5 on a neutral site while the stakes are as high as Snoop Dogg on days that end in y.

Even though Rick Barnes hasn’t had the most success in March, making a deep run as a first year head coach is tough. Especially when you matchup against a conference opponent whom you’ve already beaten twice. How do you improve? You did everything right the first two times? Meanwhile, the Volunteers have been plotting revenge since the matchup was set, and probably had it circled since the bracket dropped. Ultimately, I don’t believe the Wildcats have it in them to beat Tennessee a third time, and I think the books are giving that away with this line.

Their defensive eFG% ranks 272nd nationally over their last 10 contests, and they had an offensive eFG% of over 61% both outings against the Volunteers. Will they be able to keep that up a third time against one of the best defenses in the country? I doubt it.

#3 Kentucky Wildcats vs #2 Tennessee Volunteers Best Bets

Kentucky vs Tennessee Prediction: Tennessee Wins & Covers, Under 144.5

Best Bets: Tennessee -4.5 (-105) BetOnline

Full disclosure, I have paired the Vols ML with Sparty ML for a (+142) Two Team Parlay. If you want full analysis on why Colby Marchio leans the other way with Ole Miss, read his full preview of that matchup here. I endorse the Vols on the spread, as I think revenge might be served cold on Friday.

The Volunteers are Top 2 in adjusted defensive efficiency and eFG%, however, the Wildcats caught them on a terrible night. In terms of eFG%, Tennessee had their worst two defensive outings of the season against Kentucky. I trust the 2nd best defense in the nation to make the proper adjustments, as I don’t think the Cats are the Vols’ kryptonite. Offensively, Chaz Lanier is shooting lights out, Tennessee is Top 25 in offensive rebounding, and they will be capable of beating Kentucky this time around.

Give me good ole’ Rocky Top playing for a spot in the Final Four on Sunday.

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