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Drake vs Bradley Prediction & Picks (2023 MVC Men’s Tournament Championship)

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Last Sunday, Bradley defeated Drake at home to win the Missouri Valley Conference regular season title.

Today, the Bulldogs will look to have the last laugh as the two teams face off with the conference’s automatic bid at stake (2:00 pm ET, CBS).

Drake (26-7, 15-5 MVC) advanced to the tournament title tilt in St. Louis with double-digit wins over Murray State and Southern Illinois.

Bradley (25-8, 16-4 MVC), however, had a little more of a challenge, not sealing their six-point win over Northern Iowa until the final minute and needing two free throws with six seconds left to edge Indiana State by a point.

Which one of these teams will book a ticket to the Big Dance this afternoon? Read on for our Drake vs Bradley prediction, as well as our picks and analysis for their matchup.

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Drake vs Bradley Odds

Odds for Drake vs Bradley are via BetOnline as of Sunday, March 5, 2023.

Spread

Drake -1.5 (-104)
Bradley +1.5 (-118)

Over/Under

Over 131.5 (-110)
Under 131.5 (-110)

Moneyline

Drake -114
Bradley -105

Will the Third Time Be the Charm for Drake?

Each of the past two seasons, Drake has reached this point, only to fall to Loyola.

Fortunately, the Ramblers are now in the Atlantic 10, but will the result be different against a different opponent?

The odds are in their favor, and so are recent Missouri Valley men’s tournament trends. Only two of the previous eight tournament were won by the top seed: Loyola in 2018 and again in 2021.

The Bulldogs and Braves split their regular season matchups, with Drake winning by 25 in Des Moines and Bradley winning by 12 in Peoria last Sunday.

Ultimately, a lot will depend on whether or not Bradley can corral Tucker DeVries again. In the first meeting, he was 10 of 19 from the field and made five threes in a 28-point effort, but he was only 3 of 13 from the field and 1 of 8 from three in an 11-point showing.

In yesterday’s 65-52 semifinal win over Southern Illinois, DeVries was only 5 of 14 from the field and scored just 12 points.

That is potentially ominous for Bradley. This season, DeVries has been held to 15 points in consecutive games only twice, once in non-conference play against Omaha (13 points) and Richmond (nine points) and once in conference play against Southern Illinois and Murray State.

Why does that matter? When he has been held to fewer than 15 points, Drake is 6-3 SU and 3-6 ATS. But when he has scored 15 or more points, the Bulldogs are 19-4 SU.

Drake vs Bradley Prediction and Picks

Bulldogs vs Braves Prediction: Drake to win

Bulldogs vs Braves Picks: Drake ML (BetOnline)

In my piece for last Sunday’s matchup between these two teams, I said that while I was backing Bradley to win at home, I thought that Drake was the better team and would back them if there was a rematch in St. Louis.

Well, here we are, and I have not seen anything in each team’s tournament games to sway me from sticking to that.