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Detroit Mercy vs Youngstown State Basketball Prediction & Picks: Will record-seeking Davis lead an upset?

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Detroit Mercy vs Youngstown State Basketball Prediction & Picks: Will record-seeking Davis lead an upset? cover

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A lot of eyes will be on the Horizon League tonight, and not just because top-seeded Youngstown State will be looking to defeat #8 seed Detroit Mercy for a place in the semifinals of the conference tournament.

With 26 points, Detroit’s Antoine Davis will become the all-time leading scorer in Division I basketball, passing Hall of Famer “Pistol Pete” Maravich.

Will he break the record and see his collegiate career come to an end? Or will he and the Titans (14-18) topple the Penguins (23-8) on their home court? Read on for our Detroit Mercy vs Youngstown State basketball prediction and picks.

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Detroit Mercy vs Youngstown State Odds

Odds are via BetOnline as of Thursday, March 2, 2023, at 12:40 pm ET.

Spread

Detroit Mercy +8.5 (-102)
Youngstown State -8.5 (-120)

Over/Under

Over 157.5 (-106)
Under 157.5 (-114)

Moneyline

Detroit Mercy +350
Youngstown State -465

Can Youngstown State Keep Davis Under 30 Points?

On Tuesday, Davis poured in 38 points and added eight rebounds and eight assists to lead the Titans to an 81-68 win over Purdue-Fort Wayne.

It was the eighth time in nine games that Davis, who is the top scorer in Division I basketball at 28.4 PPG, has hit the 30-point mark.

Overall, he has scored at least 30 points 14 times this season, and Detroit has fared better when he has versus when he hasn’t. The Titans are 8-6 when he scores 30 or more, but they are just 6-12 when he doesn’t.

His previous visit to the Beeghly Center in Youngstown fits into the latter category. In a 73-63 loss there on January 29, Davis made just 5 of 18 shots (2 of 12 from three) and scored just 15 points. That is his second-lowest output of the season.

Davis has had 33 and 27 shot attempts in his last two games, and with the record in sight and the Titans looking to keep their season alive, he will be looking for his shot early tonight.

That increases the likelihood we’ll see him go for 30+, and if he does, that also bodes well for the over. In the 14 games in which he has scored 30+ points, the over has hit 10 times, though the under has hit in each of the last three instances.

Detroit Mercy vs Youngstown State Prediction and Picks

Detroit Mercy vs Youngstown State Prediction: Youngstown State to win

Detroit Mercy vs Youngstown State Picks: Youngstown State -8.5 (BetOnline) & Detroit/Youngstown State over 157 (BetUS)

Youngstown State leads the Horizon League in scoring at 83.5 points per game, which ranks fifth in Division I. Detroit, meanwhile, ranks third in the Horizon League and 59th in Division I in scoring at 76.9 PPG.

So, there’s a good chance we’ll see plenty of points all around, including for the potential record-breaker.

It also doesn’t hurt that these two teams rank first (Detroit at 39.2%) and second (Youngstown State at 37.8%) in the conference in three-point percentage.

Ultimately, it will likely be a pretty bittersweet night for Davis. He should get the record, but his season and collegiate career are likely to come to an end in Youngstown.

In the regular season, the Penguins went 9-1 in conference games in at home, winning seven by double digits. Overall, 12 of their 15 conference wins and 19 of their 23 wins for the season are by at least nine points.