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Dayton vs VCU Basketball Prediction & Picks (2023 A-10 Tournament Final)

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Dayton vs VCU Basketball Prediction & Picks (2023 A-10 Tournament Final) cover

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Dayton hasn’t been a part of the March Madness bracket since 2017, but the Flyers can end that drought with a win over VCU in today’s Atlantic 10 Tournament championship game this afternoon (1:00 pm ET, CBS).

The second-seeded Flyers (22-11) saw off #3 Fordham 78-68 in yesterday’s semis, while the top-seeded Rams (26-7) eliminated #4 seed Saint Louis with a 90-78 win.

These two proud programs have both gone to the NCAA Tournament 18 times. Who will book a 19th trip? Read on for our Dayton vs VCU basketball prediction, as well as our picks for today’s matchup in Brooklyn.

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Dayton vs VCU Odds

Odds are via BetOnline as of Sunday, March 12, 2023.

Spread

Dayton +2.5 (-105)
VCU -2.5 (-115)

Over/Under

Over 124.5 (-110)
Under 124.5 (-110)

Moneyline

Dayton +125
VCU -150

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Will Semifinal Scoring Be an Anomaly for Dayton and VCU?

Yesterday was a bit of an uncharacteristic day for the Flyers and Rams, who were both sharp offensively in their semifinal wins.

Against Saint Louis, VCU tied a season-high in points, and shot 47.4% from three and 55.7% from the field.

Dayton, meanwhile, scored 75 or more points for just the tenth time all season in eliminating Fordham. The Flyers were only 6 of 20 from three, but they shot a blistering 23 of 28 (82.1%) on two-point shots in their win over the Rams.

Will we see more offensive fireworks in the championship game, or will the A-10’s top two defenses dominate proceedings?

If today’s game is similar to their regular season meetings, we will see the latter.

On January 13, VCU claimed a 63-62 by outscoring Dayton 10-2 over the final 3:14. The Flyers flipped the script in Richmond on February 7 in a 62-58 win, as they held the Rams to two points in an almost seven-minute span in the second half in a game-changing 12-2 run.

Total wise, the under is 13-7-0 in Dayton’s 20 A-10 games this season, while it is 11-9-0 in VCU’s A-10 games.

That said, the team who wins the game will likely hit the over on its team total. Out of Dayton’s 22 wins this season, they have scored 62 or more points in 20 of them. And out of VCU’s 26 wins this season, they have scored 64 or more points 23 times.

Dayton vs VCU Prediction and Picks

Prediction for Dayton vs VCU: Dayton to win

Picks for Dayton vs VCU: Dayton ML (Best Value: Bovada Sportsbook) & Dayton team total over 61.5

I’m picking former VCU coach Anthony Grant and the Flyers to return to the Big Dance. They had the better of the two meetings and should have had a regular season sweep.

And since I am backing the Flyers, I am also backing the over the over on their team total, given how likely it is to hit.