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Tuesday College Basketball Must Bet Spreads and Totals | January 2, 2024
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Updated:
Read Time: 5 minutes
ncaab
Welcome into 2024, as we bring in the new year with new goals and aspirations, the college basketball world starts to wrap up non-conference play.
Let’s start 2024 off on the right foot and hopefully improve my scribbles record of 1-1 to above .500.
Here we go!
#1 Purdue vs Maryland: Under 143.5
Purdue big man Zach Edey throwing it down against Michigan State.
Matchup Information – College Basketball
- Venue & Location: Xfinity Center – College Park, MD
- Date: Tuesday, January 2, 2024
- Tip Off: 7:00pm Eastern
The Stank:
If you are not a fan of defense and a good under, this game is not for you. Both schools come into this game as top 50 in defensive adjusted efficiency (Purdue #4). They are allowing roughly 65.7 points per game. They do everything right rebound, block shots and do not foul.
As for their offenses, a completely different story. Purdue is an absolute powerhouse, one of the best all-around teams in the country. They are top 50 in almost every offensive category against top 100 schools, according to Bart Torvik. They are flawless, their biggest flaw is their free throw percentage, which is still top 170.
2️⃣0️⃣2️⃣3️⃣ left us hungry for more. pic.twitter.com/MnwRHo4Ixd
— Purdue Men's Basketball (@BoilerBall) December 31, 2023
Maryland on the other hand is meh. For a team that is pretty reliant on the three ball they are not too good at shooting them. Maryland is 338th in three point percentage, according to Bart Torvik, while having a three point rate of 40.6%.
Small sample size, but in their 3 games against top 100 schools, Maryland has not played well offensively. They are ranked inside the 300’s in offensive adjusted efficiency, effective field goal offense and three point percentage. In those three game the Terrapins averaged 54 points and shot 23.4% from behind the arc. Gross.
The tempo should not be a concern. Purdue is 164th in tempo, while Maryland is significantly slower at 262nd, according to Haslametrics.
Concerns: Maryland’s defense is not as good as they are advertised. The Terrapins are not as battled tested as the Boilermakers, number 296 in strength in schedule, according to Haslametrics.
If the total feels too low for you, make a SGP for this game. Alt line Purdue’s spread and take the total up. Purdue should dominate this game.
The Pick: Under 143.5 Get These Odds & Sign Up Bonus @ Bovada
Iowa vs #23 Wisconsin: Wisconsin (-7.5)
Wisconsin guard Chucky Hepburn hushes Marquette crowd.
Matchup Information – College Basketball
- Venue & Location: Kohl Center – Madison, WI
- Date: Tuesday, January 2, 2024
- Tip Off: 7:00pm Eastern
The Stank:
Fading the daylights out of Iowa on the road is almost an automatic play for me. Things may be different in 2024 for Iowa on the road, but as of late it is still a must. Last year they 4-7 on the road and struggled to shoot and we all know they do not play a lick of defense no matter where they play.
Iowa basketball on the road. pic.twitter.com/CyuPDUWRqW
— Trent Condon (@trentcondon) February 23, 2023
This season that narrative seems to be the same. So far this season Iowa is 2-4 in road/neutral matchups. In those four losses, Iowa was outscored by 64 points. Each game they played significantly worse, losing by 25 in their last true road game against their arch rival Iowa State.
As for the Badgers, they are a completely different team they were a year ago. They are much more complete and seem legit. They have been battle tested, having the 12th toughest schedule, according to Haslametrics. The Badgers are 4-3 against top 100 schools this season, beating Virginia, SMU, Marquette and Michigan State.
Wisconsin’s offense should excel against an Iowa defense that is allowing 77.2 points per game (Wisconsin is scoring 74.2 PPG). The Badgers have a very efficient offense that gets a lot of second chance opportunities.
Iowa is going to want to run, but if the Badgers can control the tempo and play at their pace, they should take care of business.
Concerns: Iowa’s shots are falling and Wisconsin’s are not.
The Pick: Wisconsin (-7.5) Get These Odds & Sign Up Bonus @ Bovada
Additional Information
If you are looking for advanced analytic websites for college basketball the ones I have mentioned above are my favorite two. They are free and very informative. Ken Pom is another great resource, but sadly you have to pay.
Remember, these are mostly used as a crutch. Do not let these be the end all be all to making wagers. They are not always right with their predictions. Use your plums, trust your gut, and remember you cannot win them all. Trust the process. If you have any questions my socials are below I am always free to discuss anything college hoops. Especially, if it is over a game that will have under 23 people in attendance.
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd who spends his free time on Bart Torvik, Ken Pom and Batters-Box.com. He has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog, he loves them all.
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