Boise State vs San Diego State Basketball Prediction & Picks: Broncos, Aztecs battle for first at Viejas Arena

Sole possession of first place in the Mountain West Conference will be on the line tonight as #22 San Diego State (17-5, 8-2 Mountain West) and Boise State (18-5, 8-2 Mountain West) meet at Viejas Arena (9:00 pm ET, FS1).

The Aztecs are looking to get back on track tonight after Tuesday’s 75-66 loss at Nevada on Tuesday.

It was a disappointing loss for SDSU, but it helps the conference, as it boosts the Wolf Pack’s (17-6, 7-3 Mountain West) hopes of landing an NCAA Tournament berth and therefore the conference’s chances of being a four or five-bid league.

A win tonight may or may not keep the Aztecs in next week’s rankings, but it will send them into next Wednesday’s visit to Utah State (18-5, 7-3 Mountain West).

Will the Aztecs end tonight all alone atop the conference? Read on for our Boise State vs San Diego State basketball prediction and picks.

Boise State vs San Diego State Odds

Odds are via BetOnline as of Friday, February 3, 2023, at 4:10 pm ET. This article may also include odds from our other recommended legal sports betting sites.

Spread

• Boise State +5.5 (-102)
• San Diego State -5.5 (-120)

Over/Under

• Over 134.5 (-110)
• Under 134.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Boise State +215
• San Diego State -265

Can Boise State Stifle San Diego State’s Scoring?

Tuesday’s loss in Reno was just the fifth time in 22 games this season that the Aztecs failed to reach the 70-point mark.

Throughout this season, I have noted San Diego State’s vastly improved offensive output, so this is just another instance of me rattling off tidbits about that impressive improvement.

Last season, SDSU scored 70 or more points only a dozen times in 32 games. That they have eclipsed that number by five already this season is no small feat.

What’s also notable is that they have failed to score 70+ points in consecutive games only once this season, when they defeated Troy 60-55 then lost 68-61 at Saint Mary’s.

The Gaels are one of the eight teams that rank higher in adjusted defensive efficiency (at KenPom) than the Broncos, who are the Mountain West’s highest-rated team in that department.

Since an 81-79 overtime loss at New Mexico two weeks ago, the Broncos have given up 53, 59, and 52 points in wins over Fresno State, Colorado State, and Air Force.

But they are in for a real challenge tonight against the Aztecs, who rank second in the conference, behind only Utah State, in adjusted offensive efficiency.

The Aztecs, who enter tonight’s game shooting 45.6% from the field, have yet to shoot under 45% in back-to-back games in conference play and have done so only twice all season.

If they can reach even that number against Boise State, they will likely be in a strong position, as the Broncos are 1-3 this season when the opposition shoots at least 45% from the field.

Boise State vs San Diego State Prediction and Picks

BSU vs SDSU Prediction: San Diego State to win

BSU vs SDSU Pick: San Diego State team total over 70.5 (Best Value: Bovada Sportsbook) & Boise State/San Diego State first half over 62.5 (Best Value: BetOnline)

The Broncos are certainly difficult to break down, but the Aztecs are equipped to do so.

Hitting the 70-point mark has become quite the habit for San Diego State, and after an off night at Nevada earlier this week, I expect them to find their form tonight to dispatch Boise State in this first-place battle.