Baylor vs Texas Basketball Prediction & Picks: Will the Horns hold off the Bears at home?

After picking up two impressive home wins over Kansas and Arkansas last week, Baylor will be looking for a big road win tonight as the #11 Bears will visit #10 Texas (9:00 pm ET/8:00 pm CT, ESPN) in Big 12 action.

Entering tonight, the Longhorns (17-4, 6-2 Big 12) are tied for first in the conference along with Iowa State and Kansas State, while the Bears (16-5, 5-3 Big 12) are in a three-way tie for fourth, along with Kansas and TCU.

Which Lone Star State squad will pull out the win tonight at the Moody Center? Read on for our Baylor vs Texas basketball prediction, as well as our picks for the action.

Baylor vs Texas Odds

Odds are via BetOnline as of Monday, January 30, 2023, at 2:00 pm ET. This article may also include odds from our other recommended legal sports betting sites.

Spread

• Baylor +3.5 (-106)
• Texas -3.5 (-114)

Over/Under

• Over 147.5 (-105)
• Under 147.5 (-115)

Moneyline

• Baylor +158
• Texas -192

Will Both Baylor and Texas Be Productive on Offense Tonight?

Neither the Longhorns nor the Bears shot well on Saturday, but where it hurt one team, it didn’t hurt the other.

In their matchup at Tennessee, Texas became only the third team this season to score 70+ points against the Volunteers, and they shot 44.1% from the field, which is the only fifth time for an opponent to shoot 40% or better against him.

However, it was all for nothing as the Longhorns left Knoxville with an 82-71 loss.

Offensive Statistics and Metrics for Texas

• PPG: 80.0 (25th in Division I)
• FG%: 48.1% (24th in D-I)
• 3PT%: 33.2% (237th in D-I)
• 2PT%: 56.2% (14th in D-I in D-I games only)
• FT%: 74.9% (45th in D-I)
• Offensive Efficiency (KenPom): 10th

Baylor, meanwhile, shot only 33.9% (20 of 59) from the field and 33.3% (6 of 18) from three against visiting Arkansas, but the Bears escaped with a 67-64 win, even though the Razorbacks shot 50.9% (27 of 53) from the field.

Offensive Statistics and Metrics for Baylor

• PPG: 78.8 (36th in Division I)
• FG%: 44.7% (183rd in D-I)
• 3PT%: 35.7% (99th in D-I)
• 2PT%: 51.8% (107th in D-I in D-I games only)
• FT%: 74.9% (46th in D-I)
• Offensive Efficiency (KenPom): 2nd

Baylor is second in the country in offensive efficiency, while Texas is tenth in the country in that department.

So, it stands to reason that we will see more points on the board tonight. After all, Texas has gone two or more games without scoring 75+ points only once this season, while the same can be said for Baylor as well.

Baylor vs Texas Prediction and Picks

Baylor vs Texas Prediction: Texas to win

Baylor vs Texas Picks: Texas to cover (Best Value: Texas -3.5 @ BetOnline) & Baylor/Texas over 146.5 (Best Value: Bovada Sportsbook/BetUS/BetMGM)

Betting trends are favorable to the over tonight in Austin, as the over is 5-2-1 in Texas’s conference games and 5-3-0 in Baylor’s conference games.

The Longhorns have scored 70 or more points five times in eight Big 12 games, while they have given up 70 or more points five times as well. As for the Bears, they have scored 70+ points six times in Big 12 play and given up 70+ five times.

The run that Baylor has been on since starting Big 12 play 0-3 makes them tough to bet against, but Texas had won five of six prior to their loss at Tennessee.

Look for Marcus Carr to bounce back from a subpar showing against the Vols to lead the ‘Horns to a big win over the visiting Bears tonight at the Moody Center.

I like the Longhorns to take care of business at home tonight, but there are many other trusted sources out there with picks for tonight’s matchup in Austin, and one of them is Doc’s Sports.

There aren’t many games on tonight’s college basketball schedule, but today and every day you can get quality college basketball picks from Doc’s Sports, who has been in the sports handicapping game since 1971. Check them out and get $60 in free premium picks today.