#13 Baylor vs #22 St. John’s: NCAA Basketball Predictions, Odds & Best Bets

College Hoops is in full swing as we are quickly approaching Feast Week and plenty of early season tournaments are getting started, including a big one down in the Bahamas. The Baha Mar Hoops Championship features four teams, the Baylor Bears, St. John’s Red Storm, Tennessee Volunteers, and the Virginia Cavaliers. We have two matchups tonight, with the winners facing each other tomorrow in the Championship game!

But tonight, let’s focus on this first Top 25 ranked matchup between the Baylor Bears and the St. John’s Red Storm.

The Bears lost to Gonzaga in their first game of the year, but since then have taken care of business. They beat a very good Arkansas team by 5 on a neutral site while scoring triple digits against Sam Houston and Tarleton State while only allowing a combined 108 points. Baylor is cruising, and I see Scott Drew having his men fired up for this tournament in paradise.

As for the Johnnies, they are 4-0 this season but certainly have no played a schedule like the Bears. St. John’s has played 3 teams ranked outside of 150th, and also took down New Mexico very easily. No doubt, this is the toughest matchup for the Red Storm so far this season, and they look ahead to a tough matchup against Georgia on Sunday.

Who will walk away victorious tonight in the Bahamas?

#13 Baylor Bears vs #22 St. John’s Red Storm: Baha Mar Hoops

Matchup Information – Baylor vs St. John’s

• Venue & Location: Baha Mar Convention Center (Nassau, Bahamas)
• Date: Thursday, November 21st, 2024
• Tip Off: 8:00pm Eastern
• Broadcast: CBS Sports Network

Betting Odds

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Spread

• Baylor -2.5 (-113)
• St. John’s +2.5 (-107)

Money Line

• Baylor -148
• St. John’s +128

Total

• Over 153 (-115)
• Under 153 (-105)

Scott Drew vs Rick Pitino in the Bahamas

Even if Pitino is dressed like the Godfather tonight, I’ve got to lean with the Bears. Not only have they played the a top 5 team, two top 40 teams, and 3 teams in the Top 115, but they also have nearly two weeks before their next big matchup against UCONN. Sure, they will face a Tennessee or Virginia team in the Championship, but Scott Drew has his sites set on bigger hardware this season.

Baylor plays a relatively slow pace, but they shoot plenty of 3s, shoot them well, and are rock solid defensively. The Bears rank 37th in adjusted defensive efficiency, as well as 29th in Turnovers forced and 27th in FT Rate Defense, meaning they don’t send their opponent to the charity stripe very often. Offensively, Baylor is a team that’s 5th in efficiency and 14th in offensive rebounds.

The Johnnies typically play a lot faster, but they are also a team that doesn’t thrive on the deep ball. While they rank 29th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency, and 25th in offensive rebounds, the defense is where its at for St. John’s. Early in the season they rank 13th in AdjD Efficiency, but this will be the toughest offense they’ve seen all year. I think this will be a bit of a wake up call for the Red Storm who are facing a potential National Championship team.

#13 Baylor Bears vs #22 St. John’s Red Storm Best Bets

Baylor vs St. John’s Prediction: Baylor Wins & Covers, Over 153

Best Bets: Baylor ML (-148) BetOnline

Ultimately, I think Baylor is the more talented, battle tested, better coached team. Plain and simple. They’ve already tested their skills against Gonzaga on the road and Arkansas at a neutral site, making me confident in their abilities to go down to the Bahamas and get a win.

After their opening season loss, the Bears’ shooting percentage as increased every single game. Senior transfers Jermey Roach and Norchad Omier are stepping up and leading this team who continues to find their shape. Sure, St. John’s is 4-0 this season and beating teams fairly easily, but their advanced stats are certainly inflated due to their competition so far this year.

Give me a more battle tested Baylor Bears team to take down St. John’s in the Bahamas tonight.

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